August 24, 2004

 

 

US Corn, Soy, Spring Wheat All See Declines

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report confirmed market participants' expectations Monday of a less- healthy U.S corn and soybean crop.

 

Overall corn conditions deteriorated to a 71% rating in the good-to- excellent category, down from 73% last week, and soybean conditions lapsed two percentage points to a 67% good-to-excellent rating. Spring wheat conditions also fell two percentage points to a good-to-excellent rating of 64%.

 

CORN

 

The decline of two percentage points in the corn conditions was in line with pre-report expectations of a decrease ranging from about a one to two percentage points. Conditions in all but three of the listed states showed a less-healthy corn crop this time around with North Dakota and South Dakota leading the losses. North Dakota's corn crop fell eight percentage points in the good-to-excellent category from last week, while South Dakota's crop fell 11 points. Both Minnesota and Kentucky fell six points.

 

Dan Cekander, market analyst for Fimat in Chicago, attributes most of the losses to cool temperatures and dry pockets scattered throughout the U.S. corn and soybean belt, particularly in regions like Nebraska, western Iowa, parts of Minnesota and western Illinois.

 

Six percent of the total corn crop was rated at "mature," compared to 5% this time last year and the five-year average of 7%. Thirty-six percent of the crop had dented, while the five-year average at this point of the season was 39%.

 

SOYBEANS

 

Soybean crop conditions suffered the same losses as the corn crop with similar declines noted in the same regions of the belt. North Dakota and South Dakota fell 10 points and nine points, respectively, while Kentucky lost nine points, and Nebraska deteriorated eight points. Only Minnesota, Michigan and North Carolina recorded slight improvements in the health of their crops.

 

While conditions experienced a setback, the percentage of the crop pod- setting was not that bad, Cekander said. Ninety-one percent of the crop was setting pods, the report said, up from 81% last week and the five-year average of 90%.

 

SPRING WHEAT

 

The drop in the spring wheat rating was also no surprise, Cekander said. Spring wheat conditions fell to a 64% good-to-excellent rating, down from 66% last week. Leading the loss was Montana's spring wheat crop, which fell six points to a 48% good-to-excellent rating. North Dakota was not far behind with a five-point loss to a 68% good-to-excellent rating. Minnesota and Idaho, though, experienced slight increases.

 

Forty percent of the spring wheat crop was harvested, up from 21% last week but down sharply from 75% one year ago at this time.

 

Source: USDA