Russia's broiler production was forecasted to reach 3.3 million tonnes by next year, a rise of 3.4% more than 2013's estimate, according to FAS/Moscow's forecast.
RUSSIA - FAS/Moscow forecasts Russian broiler production to reach 3.3 million tonnes in 2014 (3.4% more than FAS/Moscow's 2013 estimate). The new State Programme for the Development of Poultry Production from 2013-15 (hereinafter, the 2013-2015 Poultry Programme) conservatively envisages poultry production to grow to 4.0 million tonnes in 2015, compared to 3.55 million tonnes in 2012, and should help further boost Russian broiler production next year.
In addition to forecasting an increase in domestic production in 2014, due to industry support measures implemented by the Russian government in 2013 (for example, grain intervention sales and compensation for high feed costs), as well as an increase in domestic grain production in 2013, FAS/Moscow has raised its estimate for 2013 Russian broiler production by 3% to 3.05 million tonnes.
Because of the forecasted increase in competitively priced domestic production, broiler imports are forecast to decrease slightly in 2014 (to 530,000 tonnes). Moreover, trade statistics show that Russian broiler imports were down nearly 6% (to 191,255 tonnes) during the first five months of 2013, when compared to the same period last year. This reduction in trade, coupled with FAS/Moscow's expectation that Russian broiler production will grow at a faster pace in the second half of 2013, has led FAS/Moscow to reduce its 2013 import estimate by nearly 7% (to 540,000 tonnes).
The Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus Customs Union (CU) continues to promote intra-CU, duty-free agricultural trade. FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's broiler exports in 2014 to increase by 8% (to 65,000 tonnes) over revised 2013 levels as a result of increased domestic production at a lower cost of production, and favourable trade conditions between the two CU Member States. FAS/Moscow's 2013 export forecast has been reduced by nearly 30% (to 60,000 tonnes) because of several factors. First, Customs Union trade statistics show a significant decrease in on-year trade. While traders believe this data is underreported, they also expect Russian broiler exports to be lower than early 2013 projections. In addition, Kazakhstan has reportedly strengthened its own domestic broiler production, and increased control over imported products.
With the timely release of financial support earmarked in the 2013-15 Poultry Programme, FAS/Moscow forecasts a 5% increase in turkey meat production in 2014 (to 105,000 tonnes). Additionally, given the increase in domestic turkey meat production, it is forecasted that imports will remain flat in 2014 (that is, equivalent to Russia's tariff rate quota volume for turkey meat). FAS/Moscow's turkey production estimate for 2013 has been decreased by nearly 5% (to 100,000 tonnes) as previously approved government support programme earmarked for 2013 were not accomplished during the first half of the year due to a lack of financing. Imports of turkey meat during the first five months of 2013 decreased by 33% (to 4,485 tonnes) when compared to the same period in 2012. Given this considerable decrease in trade, FAS/Moscow has significantly lowered its import estimate for 2013 (to 14,000 tonnes).
