August 21, 2007

 

US's Ohio soybean pods, corn yields seen down from 2006
 

 

Ohio corn yields and soybean counts in 2007 are expected to be lower than last year, with hot, dry weather during critical stages of development cited for much of the decline, crop scouts on the eastern leg of the 2007 John Deere/Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said Monday (Aug 20).

 

Tour officials estimate the Ohio corn yield at an average 133.39 bushels/acre, down 6 percent from the 2006 crop tour finding of 141.42 bushels/acre.

 

The US Agriculture Department in August issued an Ohio corn production estimate of 143 bushels/acre, down from 159 bushels/acre in 2006. The John Deere/Pro Farmer tour does not compare its findings with USDA findings, however, but instead relies on its findings from the previous season to compare results.

 

"Clearly there's a little bit less corn yield potential out there," said Roger Bernard, editor at Pro Farmer and director of the eastern leg of the tour.

 

The tour found an Ohio soybean count of an average 1,226.70 pods in a three-foot square area, down 9 percent from last year's tour estimate of 1,336.20 pods. With so much of the soybean crop being made in August, Pro Farmer does not calculate a soybean yield estimate. Instead, it uses total pod counts to determine the crop potential.

 

While the tour's corn estimate is down 6 percent from last year, it did not decline as much as the USDA's estimate of 143 bushels/acre, which is down 10.1 percent from last year.

 

"So it would appear to us that we found an improved yield potential out there - at least not as much of a decline year over year as what the USDA found when it gathered its data on Aug 1," Bernard said.

 

Tour officials said recent rains that have moved through parts of Ohio have boosted corn crop potential.

 

The news may cause "a little bit" of price pressure in corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, he said.

 

The eastern tour began Monday morning in Columbus, Ohio, and scouts headed west on eight different routes that took them into Indiana by the end of the day.

 

Some corn fields just west of Columbus were planted late enough that the crop did not properly pollinate because of very hot weather, and the ears did not fill out to the tips, while other fields were not affected by the potentially yield-robbing heat, Bernard said.

 

A John Deere crop systems specialist concurred, also citing corn tips that were stripped of kernels, hence reducing the total number of kernels on the cob.

 

The specialist also found insect damage from corn-borers and significant spider mite infestations in north-eastern Indiana. There was also damage from root lodging in some corn fields.

 

Pro Farmer Crop Tour Consultant Mark Bernard said his group found "extreme variability" in corn yields, with tiny ears not filled out to the tips in some fields to other fields that would likely produce well over 200 bushels/acre in Ohio.

 

On soybeans, the 9 percent decline in pod counts was higher than the USDA's projected production decline, and this news may be supportive for CBOT bean futures, eastern tour director Bernard said.

 

The USDA in August pegged the average Ohio soybean yield at 44 bushels/acre, down from 47 bushels/acre last year, with total production estimated at 175.12 million bushels, down from 217.14 million bushels last year.

 

"So we're going to need some of that favourable weather at the end of the growing season to try to get those pods to make it all the way through to maturity," Bernard said.

 

Some legs of the eastern tour had dry weather in the morning, but several scouts reported heavy rains for much of the afternoon crop sampling, which is expected to help pod-filling.

 

The entire tour, the western and eastern legs, moves through seven Midwestern states that comprise about 70 percent of US corn and soybean production. Those include South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

 

The tour will continue to move west out of Andersen, Indiana, on Tuesday, as 10 carloads of scouts take separate routes that will all end in Bloomington, Illinois, where officials will crunch the numbers and issue an average corn yield and soybean pod count for Indiana.

 

The two legs of the tour will meet in Owatonna, Minnesota, Thursday evening for a final meeting, and Pro Farmer will issue its overall tour results on Friday (Aug 24) at 1:30 pm CDT.