August 20, 2009

World wheat production in 2009-10 is expected to increase by 2.8 million tonnes to 659.3 million tonnes, as substantial drops in some countries are seen to offset production increases, according to data from the USDA Economic Research Service.

 

Wheat output is expected to increase for India, China, Ukraine, the EU and several other countries, while production will fall for Russia, Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan and South Africa.

 

As a result, foreign production is up only 900,000 tonnes to 599.9 million tonnes, while US production is increased by 1.9 million tonnes.

 

Global average wheat yield and production is projected to be the second-highest in history after the 2008-09 marketing year. 

 

The largest increase is in India, where most of the crop was harvested months ago. The 2009-10 wheat production is increased three million tonnes to a record high of 80.6 million tonnes based on revised final government estimates.

 

EU production is seen up 1.6 million tonnes to 136.3 million tonnes. But continuous dry weather in Spain, Romania, Bulgaria and Austria will lead to a combined production fall of 1.3 million tonnes in the four countries.

 

Ukraine's wheat production forecast rose one million tonnes to 19.5 million following consistently good harvest reports indicating higher-than-expected yields, despite certain adverse weather conditions in the eastern part of the country.

 

China's wheat production is also projected up one million tonnes to 114.5 million, up two million tonnes from the previous year, and is the second highest wheat production on record.

 

The largest drop will be in Russia, where the month-on-month decrease in production reached 4.5 million tonnes, reducing output to 55.5 million tonnes. Persistent dryness in key wheat producing areas in the Southern and Volga Valley Federal Districts have harmed the crops, while also affecting spring wheat yield potential.

 

Canadian wheat production is cut by one million tonnes to 22.5 million, partly due to a 200,000-hectare reduction resulting from potential for larger-than-expected area abandonment. Regions most affected by the drought may also have a large cattle industry where the wheat fields will be cut for hay.

 

Canada's wheat yield is also reduced, reflecting the larger-than-expected frost damage. The sluggish pace of crop progress may also contribute to autumn frost damage. 

 

Argentina's wheat production prospects are decreased by one million tonnes to 8.5 million tonnes.

 

Kazakhstan's output is expected to drop 500,000 tonnes to 14 million tonnes, as dry weather conditions in the western and northern parts of the country caused the crops to receive little or no rain during the moisture critical period.

 

In South Africa, production is forecasted down 300,000 tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, due to a 13-percent decrease in planted area from 2008-09.

 

In addition to a 2.8-million-tonne wheat production increase, global supplies are boosted by a 2.15-million-tonne increase in 2009-10 beginning stocks this month.