August 18, 2006

Brazil's 2006/07 soybean export registrations at 97 percent of estimate

As of Aug 15, registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for the market year 2006/07 were at 97 percent of the estimated record 25.2 million tonnes Brazil is expected to export, said the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove, on Thursday (Aug 17).

Roughly 24.4 million tonnes of soybeans have been registered for export, compared to 23.5 million tonnes two weeks ago. Abiove estimates Brazil's soy crop at 56.1 million tonnes, the highest private 2005/06 crop forecast around.

By comparison, Brazil committed 94 percent of its total 22.4 million tonnes of soy exports by Aug 15 in market year 200506 and 102 percent of its 18.95 million tonnes of soy exports in the 200405 season.

The country's 2006/07 soy crush remains unchanged at 28.2 million tonnes in this newest estimate--Brazil's lowest crush in three years.

Soymeal registrations for 2006/07 rose to 8.8 million tonnes compared to the 8.2 million tonnes in the Jul 31 estimate. Abiove continues to peg soy meal exports at 12.6 million tonnes this season, the lowest volume in four years. Seventy percent of the country's soymeal has now been registered, compared with 73 percent in 2005/06, and 78 percent in the 2004/05 season.

Brazil has been losing market share to competitors in the soy derivatives markets because of a tax law that favours the export of soybeans over other soy products, as well as growing competition from Argentina and China.

Soyoil export registrations to Aug 15 rose to 1.59 million tonnes, or 72 percent of the total 2.2 million tonnes expected to be shipped out, compared with 1.49 million tonnes registered two weeks ago. In the 2005/06 season, Brazil had registered 73 percent of its soyoil exports, while in 2004/05, the country had registered 93 percent of its exports. The country's estimated soy exports for the 2006/07 year are the lowest since four years ago, when two million tonnes were shipped out.

Brazil is the world's second biggest soybean producer after the US.