Reduced foreign corn output offsets part of the US increase

Global coarse grain production in 2009-10 is projected to reach 1,091.6 million tonnes, up 8.2 million tonnes, as a large increase in US corn production is partly offset by a 5.5-million-tonne reduction in forecast foreign corn output.

Eastern Ukraine and the Southern District of Russia suffered hot dry weather in July which damaged reproductive corn in the region. Area harvested for grain and projected yield are reduced for both countries, cutting corn production in Russia 1.5 million tonnes to 5.0 million and trimming corn output in Ukraine 1.0 million tonnes to 8.5 million.

In Mexico, rainfall so far has been below normal, especially across the Central Plateau, and temperatures have been above normal, hurting the development of corn. A strengthening El Nino in the Pacific is associated with continuing dry conditions across the key central corn region. The yield forecast for Mexico's corn is reduced from trend to the 5-year average, cutting projected production 1.5 million tonnes this month to 22.5 million.

In South Africa, the prospect of El Nino-generated dryness is contributing to a lack of producer enthusiasm for planting corn. Corn area is cut 13 percent this month, reducing production prospects 1.0 million tonnes to 10.5 million.

Dry, hot weather during reproduction hurt corn yield potential in Serbia, cutting production 0.5 million tonnes to 6.0 million. In the EU, heat and drought in Spain cut corn production potential, more than offsetting improved prospects in countries with good rainfall, like Germany. EU corn production is down 0.25 million tonnes to 56.2 million.

In August, the only non-US increase in corn production prospects was for El Salvador, up 0.3 million tonnes to 0.9 million as the historical series for area and yield was revised.

Foreign sorghum production increased 0.75 million tonnes to 52.8 million. The uneven, weak monsoon in India is causing some producers to switch area from rice to sorghum. Sorghum production is projected up 0.5 million tonnes this month to 8.0 million. Sorghum area in Uruguay is reported to have declined less than previously forecast, boosting production prospects 0.2 million tonnes to 0.4 million. Sorghum production in El Salvador increased slightly.

Foreign barley production increased 0.5 million tonnes this month to 138.2 million. The largest increase this month is for Ukraine, up 1.8 million tonnes to 11.5 million. Harvest reports indicate higher area and yield than expected. China reported increased barley area, boosting production 0.3 million tonnes, and there were smaller increases for Australia, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. These increases were partly offset by reductions in some countries. Barley production prospects for Turkey are cut 0.75 million tonnes to 6.0 million due to lower reported yields. Projected barley production in Canada is reduced 0.6 million tonnes to 8.8 million, as drought in Alberta has reduced harvested area prospects. EU barley production prospects are trimmed 0.3 million tonnes this month as a sharp reduction in yields in Spain is partly offset by increased prospects across Northern Europe, where rains were favourable. Kazakhstan had a small decline in yield prospects.

Foreign rye production is increased 0.4 million tonnes to 16.4 million as favourable growing conditions across Northern Europe boosted EU prospects. There are also small increases for Ukraine and Canada. Foreign mixed grains increased 0.4 million tonnes to 15.1 million due to increased EU prospects across France, Germany, and Poland.

Foreign oats production is down 0.5 million tonnes this month to 21.8 million mostly due to a 0.8-million-ton drop in prospects for Canada to only 2.65 million tonnes. There is a small increase this month for Ukraine and the EU.