August 17, 2005

Meat and Livestock Australia lowers beef export forecast for this year

Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd. (MLA) forecasts the country's total bone-free beef exports at 950,000 tonnes this year, down from February's forecast at 995,000 tonnes.

Beef exports were also expected to continue falling in 2006 to 910,000 tonnes.

Australia's beef exports in 2004 totalled 913,799 tonnes worth AUD4.2 billion.

Australia exported about two-thirds of its beef production, making it the second largest global exporter behind Brazil.

MLA said the strong position of Australia's beef industry would be tested with an expected weakening of US beef demand and the return of US beef to markets worldwide.

However, MLA felt the timing and nature of the re-entry of US and Canadian beef into markets worldwide remained uncertain, especially with regard to Japan's and South Korea's beef markets. Thus, it would be difficult to predict overall export demand in 2006 and beyond.

MLA forecasts beef exports to the US this year at 350,000 tonnes, up slightly from 349,751 tonnes in 2004, but down from February's forecast at 360,000 tonnes. Beef exports to the US in 2006 were expected at 355,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, beef exports to South Korea this year were forecast at 100,000 tonnes, up from 93,310 tonnes in 2004, but down from February's forecast at 115,000 tonnes. Beef exports to South Korea in 2006 were expected at 75,000 tonnes.

Beef exports to Japan this year were forecast at 430,000 tonnes, up from 393,471 tonnes in 2004. However, MLA expected the figure to fall in 2006 to 400,000 tonnes.