August 16, 2013

 

Global wheat production projected to hit 705.4 million tonnes

 

 

Projected global wheat production for 2013/14 increased 7.6 million tonnes to 705.4 million tonnes this month, helped by increases in production in the EU and former Soviet Union nations, despite reductions in Argentina, and Brazil.

 

Wheat production for the EU, the world's largest producer, is up 2.8 million tonnes this month to 141.4 million tonnes. Overall good conditions in July, resulted in rapid wheat maturation and benefited countries from Ireland and the United Kingdom to France, Germany, and Poland - the major EU wheat producers. The largest increase is projected for Spain, up 0.8 million tonnes to 7.7 million tonnes, a record-high for the country. However, yields were slightly reduced for Denmark, Austria, and Greece.

 

Wheat production prospects for the United States are nearly unchanged. As projected, global wheat output would top the 2011/12 record by more than 8 million tonnes.

 

Wheat production prospects in the former Soviet Union countries increased 4.7 million tonnes this month to 107.0 million tonnes, nearly 30 million tonnes higher than last year. For Kazakhstan, projected wheat production is up 2.5 million tonnes this month to 17.0 million tonnes.

 

In Kazakhstan, record-high precipitation levels in Akmola and better-than-average precipitation in the North Kazakhstan region (two of the country's three major wheat-producing regions), combined with the moderate temperatures, have generated excellent growing conditions.

 

Ukraine's wheat production prospects are increased 2.0 million tonnes this month to 21.5 million tonnes. Reports indicate high wheat yields, with already about 95% of wheat being harvested. However, the crop's quality has been reduced by rain during harvest, with the estimated share of feed-quality wheat at 60%, an increase from 20% last year. At the southwestern border of Ukraine, Moldova is set to produce 1.0 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Russian projected wheat production is unchanged this month at 54.0 million tonnes. The winter wheat harvest is close to completion in the South and North Caucasus Districts, and in about two-thirds of the Central District - the major winter wheat growing regions - with reported strong yields of about 30% higher than last year.

 

Spring wheat growing conditions have been outstanding in most of Siberia, except southern Urals, which has been suffering from excessive dryness since mid-July, though even this region also recently started to receive much needed precipitation. Persistent rains in parts of the Central and Volga Districts have disrupted harvesting and could affect quality and, in some cases, even the volume of wheat production.

 

Canadian 2013/14 wheat production is projected up 0.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million this month, due to good weather across the Prairies States of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, which produce 97% of Canadian spring wheat. As wheat development in Canada is delayed this year, there are risks of early frosts that could impact wheat yields. The moisture that is expected to boost wheat yields could lower wheat quality.

 

India's wheat production for 2013/14 was increased 0.5 million tonnes this month to 92.5 million tonnes, based on revised government estimates. Most of the crop was harvested months ago, and the government estimate should be close to the final number.

 

In Turkey, where the wheat harvest has been completed earlier than usual and was helped by warm harvest weather, wheat production is increased 0.4 million tonnes to 18.0 million tonnes.

 

Increases in 2013/14 wheat output are partly offset by a reduction in prospects for Argentina, with harvested area projected down 0.3 million hectares this month, with production down 1.0 million tonnes, to 12.0 million tonnes. Government interventions in wheat exports have been detrimental to wheat producers' planting incentives, bringing wheat exports to a standstill.

 

Projected 2013/14 wheat output is also reduced for Brazil, down 0.2 million tonnes or 4%, to 4.8 million tonnes, due to frosts in late July which affected 9% - 15% of wheat area in Parana (the country's largest wheat producing state).