August 16, 2007

 

Strategie Grains: 2007/08 EU cereal crop forecast at 257 million tonnes
 

 

Strategie Grains Thursday (Aug 16) again cut its forecast for the European Union's 2007/08 cereal crop to 257 million tonnes due to adverse weather, down 13.7 million tonnes from last month's projection.

 

This season's harvest is now seen 2 percent smaller than last year's drought-stressed crop, contrasting with the start of the calendar year when Strategie Grains was projecting a 9 percent larger crop on the year earlier.

 

"Yields in west Europe have turned out lower than anticipated following heavy rains at the end of the cereals growth cycle, and from large-scale losses for corn area and yield in east Europe," it said.

 

Corn accounted for the largest portion of this month's reduction. But the estimate for soft wheat, the main EU grain crop, was also cut significantly.

 

Strategie Grains now forecasts the EU 2007/08 corn crop at 46.8 million tonnes, down 7.9 million tonnes from the July projection and down 12 percent from the year-earlier figure.

 

A heat wave and drought in July had a "very severe" impact to cut yields sharply in key producers such as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, the report said.

 

"In order to minimise revenue losses, many corn fields originally intended for grain production have been harvested as silage," said Strategie Grains.

 

The 2007/08 EU soft wheat crop, which is now mostly harvested, is estimated at 114.1 million tonnes, down 4.8 million tonnes from the July estimate and down 2 percent from last year's crop.

 

Wheat and barley harvesting is now completed in the southern EU, while drawing to an end in France and Germany, and is well advanced in the UK, Strategie Grains said.

 

The following tables list Strategie Grain forecasts for 2007 production, yields and area.

 

Output (million tonnes)

                    Aug          July

Cereal       2007/08    2007/08      2006/07    Change on-year
Soft wheat     114.1       118.9         116.8         -2 percent

Barley            57.7         58.2          55.9          +3 percent

Corn              46.8         54.7          53.3          -12 percent

Durum            7.5           7.8            7.8           -5 percent

Rye                 7.9          8.0            6.5           +22 percent

Oats & other    23.0        23.2           21.3          +8 percent

TOTAL            257.0       270.7         261.6         -2 percent

 

Yields (tonnes/hectare)

                    Aug          July

Cereal        2007/08    2007/08    2006/07    Change on-year

Soft wheat       5.2           5.4           5.4           -4 percent

Barley             4.2           4.2           4.1          +3 percent

Corn               5.9           6.4           6.3          -6 percent

Durum            2.8           2.9           2.9          -5 percent

Rye                 3.0           3.1           2.8          +8 percent

Oats & other    3.2           3.2           2.9          +10 percent

AVERAGE        4.6           4.8            4.7           -2 percent

 

Area sown (million hectares)

                  Aug          July

Cereal      2007/08    2007/08    2006/07    Change on-year

Soft wheat    22.1         22.0         21.7          +2 percent

Barley          13.8         13.8         13.8           0 percent

Corn             7.9          8.5          8.4            -6 percent

Durum           2.7          2.7          2.7             0 percent

Rye               2.6          2.6          2.3          +13 percent

Oats & other   7.2          7.3          7.3           -1 percent

TOTAL           56.2         56.9        56.2           0 percent