August 16, 2004

US Beef Supply & Demand, Production And Price Estimates

Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged.  Meat production forecasts for 2004 are raised fractionally because of increased broiler meat output during the second half of the year.  Hatchery data indicate higher eggs set and chick placements, pointing to larger growth in broiler meat output compared with last month.

Price forecasts for 2005 are unchanged.  Continued strong demand for pork in 2004 results in a higher hog price forecast for the second half of the year.  The hog price for 2004 is forecast at $49 to $50 per cwt.  Cattle and broiler price forecasts are mostly unchanged, but second-half turkey price forecasts are increased.

Due to uncertainties with regards to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place.  Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.