August 16, 2004

 

 

US Pork Production For 2005 Less Than 0.1% On 2004

 

USDA's most recent estimate of pork production for 2005 is an increase from 2004. However, this increase is less than 0.1 percent.

 

There is some hope that the number of slaughter hogs imported from Canada will be down from this year in 2005. However, the odds probably favor more feeder pig imports from Canada next year than the current one.

 

USDA's current estimate of pork exports for 2005 is an increase of less than 0.1 percent from this year's record level. With the big increase in pork exports in 2004, a slowdown in the increase is probably highly likely in 2005.

 

USDA's current estimate of hog prices for 2005 is for an average of $47.00 for 51-52 percent lean live hogs. Their current estimate is $49.50 per cwt for this year for 51-52 percent lean live hogs.

 

The USDA August estimate of the 2004 corn production is 10.923 billion bushels---a new record high by a substantial margin. The average yield per acre for 2004 is estimated at 148.9 bushels.

 

With this big crop, USDA is estimating an average farm price for corn of $2.05-2.45 per bushel for the 2004-05 marketing year. The midpoint of this estimate would be $0.15 per bushel less than during the current corn marketing year.

 

USDA's August estimate of the soybean crop is down from the July estimate. But at 2.877 billion bushels, the crop estimate is for a 386 million bushel increase from 2004.

 

The USDA August per ton estimate for soybean meal prices has a midpoint of $195 per ton---this would be down $65 per ton from the current 2003-04 estimate.

 

Therefore the good news for hog producers is that feed prices at least until next summer are likely to be below prices for the last 12 months.

 

Hog slaughter under Federal Inspection for this week was estimated at 1,932 thousand head. However, this week's slaughter level was 1.7 percent below the big weekly slaughter this week last year. The good news is that current hog prices are about 30 percent above last year even though slaughter for the past 4 weeks is estimated to be 2-3 percent above the same weeks in 2004.

 

Cash hog prices live for this Friday were $1.50 to $3.00 below the previous Friday. These prices were: Peoria $52.50 per cwt, St. Paul $53.50, Sioux Falls $53.00 and interior Missouri $51.75.

 

The weighted average price for 185-pound carcasses with 0.9-1.1-inches of back fat 6-square-inch loin 2 inches deep was also lower this Friday compared to a week earlier.

 

The prices for carcasses by area were: western Cornbelt $74.28, eastern Cornbelt $74.08, Iowa-Minnesota $73.97, and nation $74.08 per cwt.