August 15, 2012

 

US 2013 wheat carryover forecast up 5%

 

 

US wheat carryover was projected at 698 million bushels as of June 1, 2013, up 34 million bushels or 5%, from 664 million bushels projected in July but down 45 million bushels or 6%, from 743 million bushels in 2012.

 

The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 680 million bushels.

 

US corn carryover on September 1, 2013, was projected at 650 million bushels, down 533 million bushels, or 45%, from 1,183 million bushels in July and down 371 million bushels, or 36%, from an upwardly revised 1,021 million bushels estimated in 2012. The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was near the average of trade expectations of 651 million bushels. Carryover of US soy on September 1, 2012, was projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 12%, from 130 million bushels in July and down 30 million bushels, or 21%, from a downwardly revised 145 million bushels estimated for this year. The USDA 2013 soy carryover number was as expected by the trade.

 

US all wheat production was forecast at 2,268 million bushels for 2012, up 44 million bushels, or 2%, from 2,224 million bushels in July and up 269 million bushels, or 13%, from 1,999 million bushels in 2011. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,141 million bushels for 2012-13, up 54 million bushels, or 2%, from July and up 167 million bushels, or 6%, from 2,974 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Exports of US wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,200 million bushels, unchanged from July and up 150 million bushels, or 14%, from 1,050 million bushels in 2011-12. Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,443 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from July and up 12 million bushels from 2,231 million bushels last year. The average farm price of US wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from US$7.60@9 a bushel, up from US$6.20@7.40 in July and compared with US$7.24 in 2011-12.

 

"Tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year," the USDA said.

 

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 662.83 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from July and down 32.35 million tonnes, or 5%, from 695.18 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 683.25 million tonnes, up 3.19 million tonnes from July but down 12.31 million tonnes, or 18%, from 695.56 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 135.21 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from July but down 18.7 million tonnes, or 12%, from 153.91 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 177.17 million tonnes, down 5.27 million tonnes, or 3%, from July and down 20.42 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.59 million tonnes in 2011-12.

 

US corn production in 2012, the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 10,779 million bushels, down 2,191 million bushels, or 17%, from July and down 1,579 million bushels, or 13%, from 12,358 million bushels in 2011. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,875 million bushels, down 2,028 million bushels, or 15%, from July and down 1,636 million bushels, or 12%, from 13,511 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

US corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,300 million bushels, down 300 million bushels, or 19%, from 1,600 million bushels in July and down 250 bushels, or 16%, from 1,550 million bushels the previous year. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from US$7.50@8.90 a bushel, compared with US$5.40@6.40 in July and US$6.20@6.30 in 2011-12.

 

US 2012 soy production, also the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 2,692 million bushels, down 358 million bushels, or 12%, from 3,050 million bushels in July and down 364 million bushels, or 12% from 3,056 million bushels in 2011. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 2,857 million bushels, down 378 million bushels, or 12%, from 3,235 million bushels in July and down 429 million bushels, or 13%, from 3,286 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Total use of soy in 2012-13 was projected at 2,742 million bushels, down 363 million bushels, or 12%, from 3,105 million bushels in July and down 399 million bushels, or 13%, from 3,141 million bushels in 2011-12. The average farm price of soy in 2012-13 was projected to range from US$15@17 a bushel, up US$2 from July and compared with US$12.45 in 2011-12.