August 15, 2007

 

Dry Australian weather threatens winter crop output
 

 

Dry weather is threatening winter crop production in New South Wales, one of Australia's two big grain producing states, Frank McRae, technical specialist for cereals at the government's Department of Primary Industries, said Wednesday (Aug 15).

 

The impact of dry weather is worst in western parts of the state, which have not had much rain since the late April seasonal break, when crops, including wheat, were planted, he said.

 

Indeed, there has been "very little rain" since early July across the state except on the state's northern tablelands and south-west slopes, including Temora town, from where McRae was speaking.

 

The federal government's Bureau of Meteorology confirmed Wednesday that continued above average air pressure over Australia contributed to the below-normal rainfall over much of the country since the start of July.

 

The chance of a La Nina weather event developing in coming months remains about 50/50, the bureau said. A La Nina - the opposite of an El Nino event - is usually associated with at least average rainfall through eastern Australia in the calendar second half.

 

McRae, who produces the department's crop report, conducts crop trials throughout New South Wales and in Victoria, and so feels he has a "pretty good handle" on conditions in each region.

 

"There's no subsoil moisture under crops, that's our big problem," he said.

 

McRae added that due to dryness for "so many years", it would take a lot of rain to "wet the soil profile up".

 

"The potential is still there for a very good crop, but the forecasters at the moment are not forecasting the rain we need to keep our crops on track to give us the big yields," he commented.

 

McRae said crops in western and northern areas of the state need rain now, but the fatter crops on the central and southern slopes and the northern tablelands can probably hang on until early September.

 

"The next two to three weeks will be absolutely critical for us, especially as spring temperatures start to warm up a bit," he said.

 

New South Wales wheat production averaged 6.6 million tonnes a year in the five years ending 2005/06, or 31 percent of national output of 21.6 million tonnes a year. Western Australia usually is the biggest wheat producing state, accounting for an average of 38 percent of national production in the five years ending 2005/06.

 

In June, new crop wheat production in New South Wales was estimated at 8.1 million tonnes or 36 percent of national output, in a forecast issued by the federal government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.