August 15, 2006

 

China's annual grain production may reach 504 million tonnes by 2030

 

 

China may be able to increase its annual grain production to 504 million tonnes by 2030 to meet up to 88 percent of its domestic demand, despite a continuous decrease in grain acreage in the country, a senior official from the Ministry of Agriculture said over the weekend.

 

Rising yields despite lower acreage will help the country boost production though China will continue to be a net importer of grains in the foreseeable future, said He Bingsheng, director of Research Centre for Rural Economy.

 

Annual demand will likely hit 570 million tonnes by 2030, with the population peaking at 1.5 billion, he said.

 

"It means that China will probably have to import around 66 million tonnes of grains annually by 2030," He said.

 

Speaking at an industry gathering, He said grain acreage in China has shown a clear declining trend.

 

"Grains acreage will shrink by around 400,00 hectares a year to reach 93.3 million hectares by 2030," He said

 

But average yield has been rising.

 

"The annual unit increase in grains production is 40.5 kilogrammes per hectare in past five years. Further improvement is still probable, ranging from 30 kg to 45 kg per hectare," He explained.

 

He said an average yield increase of more than 30 kg per hectare a year will be costly and not worth the effort as the country can probably import the rest at a lower cost.

 

"Currently, world exports of grains are around 270 million tonnes a year and are expected to pick up. Even if we lower the self-reliance rate to a little below 90 percent, our needs for grain imports could be well be met by supplies in the international market," He added.