August 14, 2006

USDA raises US corn production, yield, end stocks forecasts

The US Department of Agriculture, after completing its first field survey for the 2006/07 crop, raised its forecasts Friday (Aug 11) for US corn production, yield and ending stocks.

The USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report, said corn production will reach 10.976 billion bushels, a 236 million-bushel increase from the July forecast of 10.74 billion.

"If realised, yield would be the second largest and production would be the third largest on record," USDA said in its Crop Production report, which was also released Friday.

The nearly 11-billion-bushel production forecast is still about 1 percent below 2005/06 production and 7 percent lower than 2004/05, the USDA said.

Yields are especially strong in the eastern corn belt and the Ohio Valley, where "frequent rainfall and near-normal temperatures throughout much of the growing season helped maintain adequate soil moisture," the USDA said. Illinois farmers are expected to get some of the best yields, averaging 172 bushels per acre.

Conditions were worse for corn farmers in the western corn belt and the Great Plains, the USDA said, because of low precipitation and hotter-than-normal temperatures.

But overall, the average US corn yield is now expected at 152.2 bushels per acre, up from 149 bushels predicted a month ago.

Ending stocks for 2006/07, the USDA said, are now forecast at 1.232 billion bushels, up from 1.077 billion bushels predicted a month ago.