August 13, 2010

US raises soy exports forecast on higher Chinese demand

The USDA has again raised its forecast for US soy exports and again said it based the action on stronger than expected demand from China.

The USDA said on Thursday (Aug 12) in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that the US is now expected to export 1.435 billion bushels of soy in the 2010-11 marketing year, an increase from the July forecast of 1.37 billion bushels. The soy marketing year begins September 1.

The sharp increase in exports reflect stronger projected import demand for China and reduced soy stocks in South America at the beginning of the 2010-11 marketing year, the USDA said. That is similar to what the USDA said about a month ago when, on July 9, it raised its forecast for US soy to 1.37 billion bushels, up from 1.35 billion bushels.

China is now forecast to import 52 million tonnes of soy in the 2010-11 marketing year, a 2-million-tonne increase from the USDA's July prediction.

Despite the new increased US export forecast, the USDA left its ending stocks prediction unchanged at 360 million bushels, mostly because the USDA also raised its forecast for US soy production.

Meanwhile, the new production forecast is for 3.433 billion bushels, up from the July prediction of 3.345 billion bushels.