August 13, 2007

USDA ups forecast on US beef exports

Projections for US 2007/08 beef exports are raised by US Agriculture Department's World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on continued improvement in sales to several markets. 

Beef import forecasts are raised for 2007 and 2008 because of stronger-than-expected shipments from Oceania and lower expected US cow slaughter next year. 

On the other hand, pork export projections for both 2007 and 2008 are lowered as shipments remain weaker-than-expected.  Pork imports are increased as shipments from Canada are expected to remain strong.  Broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged from last month.

The forecast for total 2007 US meat production is reduced slightly because of lower second quarter beef and broiler output and lower expected cattle slaughter later in the year.  Total meat output for 2008 is reduced because of lower beef production.  The July Cattle report indicated that the 2007 calf crop is smaller than in 2006, and it is expected that there will be fewer cattle to market next year, resulting in lower beef production.  Production forecasts for 2008 pork and poultry are unchanged.

Forecasts for 2007 and 2008 cattle prices are increased due to tighter cattle supplies as reflected in the July Cattle report.  Hog prices for 2007 are reduced slightly in part due to larger domestic supplies.  Turkey and egg prices for 2007 are increased due to small expected production gains and firm demand.