August 13, 2004

U.S. Corn Production For 2004 Projected At Record Levels

This month's outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a record total feed grain crop, higher use, and larger stocks.  The first survey-based forecast of 2004 corn production is a record 10.923 billion bushels and up 288 million bushels from last month's projected crop, which was based on trend yields adjusted for planting progress.  Projected feed and residual use of corn is up 75 million bushels from last month and up 50 million bushels from last year despite increased feeding of non-grain feed ingredients.  In addition, industrial use of corn is increased with the amount of corn used to produce ethanol projected to rise 70 million bushels from last month.  No change is made to projected exports.  Corn ending stocks are raised 141 million bushels from last month and are up 218 million bushels from last year.  The projected price range for corn is down 25 cents on each end from last month to $2.05 to $2.45 per bushel.

The first survey-based yield forecast for grain sorghum is well above the 10-year-average yield used last month, due to very favorable growing conditions in many of the major sorghum producing regions.  Relative to last month, the larger sorghum crop is reflected in larger industrial use (including 45 million bushels used to produce ethanol), and larger ending stocks. 

Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up from last month, due to larger crops in the United States, China, Ukraine, Canada, the EU-25, and a number of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.  The only notable crop reductions are in India (down 1 million tons) and in Venezuela (down 0.25 million tons).  Global production is raised to a record 956 million tons, up 17 million tons from last month and over 6 percent larger than 2003/04.  Relative to last month, global imports are unchanged but use is up over 6 million tons.  Global stocks are raised over 11 million tons from last month but are down fractionally from last year.  Stocks in China are raised 5 million tons from last month.  Smaller increases in stocks are projected for the United States, the EU-25, Canada, and Ukraine. 

Source:   ERS/USDA - WASDE