August 10, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Looking for direction; lacks strong influence

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected to start Monday's day session with a mixed undertone, looking for direction, analysts said.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen opening steady to 3 cents higher.

 

CBOT soybean prices were mixed overnight. August was 1 3/4 cents a bushel higher at US$11.86 1/4, September was 2 1/2 cents higher at US$10.93, while November slipped 1/2 cent to US$10.38.

 

Mixed signals from outside markets and a lack of weather threats in the central U.S. have traders taking a wait and see approach to the market, said Victor Lespinasse, analyst with Grainsanalyst.com.

 

Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday's U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports, evening up a few positions in the event of any surprises in production and supply and demand estimates, Lespinasse said.

 

Nevertheless, tight old crop supplies and solid demand is seen underpinning nearby contracts, while analysts look to weather updates for the direction of new crop futures.

 

A few thunderstorm complexes are on tap for the U.S. Midwest as temperatures ease from the brief heat surge back to nearer normal August warmth, according to the WSI AgTrader Daily Global Weather Report. The heaviest rains will most likely be in the southern and western Midwest.

 

A market technician said first resistance for November soybeans is seen at last week's high of US$10.49 3/4 and then at US$10.60. First support is seen at Friday's low of US$10.20 and then at US$10.00.

 

On tap for Monday, the USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT and its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT.

 

In other news, China's soybean imports are likely to fall sharply in August to around 2 million metric tonnes, according to a report by the Ministry of Commerce. China's monthly soybean imports so far this year have been above 3 million tonnes.

 

In overseas markets, China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Monday along with broad gains in other commodity markets. The benchmark May 2010 soybean contract settled up RMB54, or 1.5%, at RMB3,721 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose above MYR2,400 for the first time since June 17 as lower palm inventories and gains in soyoil supported prices, trade participants said. The benchmark October CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives settled MYR60 higher at MYR2,400 a metric tonne.