August 9, 2012

 

UK 2012 beef production may drop on low cattle number

 

 

Due to declining cattle number, UK's beef production will fall this year as well as a tightening of supply and a drop in exports.

 

The forecast comes from the latest Auckland District Health Board (ADHB) Market Intelligence/English Beef and Lamb Executive (Eblex) report, which showed a fall in cattle numbers at the end of last year.

 

The results of the December 2011 cattle census showed the number of beasts in the UK totalled 9.7 million, a 2% fall on the previous year mainly because there were fewer male cattle aged under two. Eblex senior analyst Debbie Butcher said: "The beef herd stabilised in June 2011, but this was a temporary position and with increased slaughterings for both heifers and cows, the December 2011 census showed that the suckler herd had declined 1% on year.

 

"Beef heifer replacements were also lower. As a result, the suckler herd is forecast to decline in 2012 and 2013."

 

The data also showed a 2% dip in the dairy breeding herd and although this is expected to stabilise, there are concerns that the recent crisis is the milk sector could cause a contraction in numbers.

 

Although there was a marginal rise in calf registrations last year, the relatively high cereal prices for most of 2011 impacted on demand and the number of registered male dairy calf births were lower. Registered numbers increased towards the end of the year and into the early part of 2012 thanks to some respite in cereal prices and better demand for dairy bull calves.

 

However, prime cattle slaughterings in 2011 were 1% higher than in 2010 at 2,109,000 head, and the decline of dairy bulls meant there was a fall in prime cattle supplies for slaughter in the final quarter of the year.

 

Butcher said: "Prime cattle supplies in the first half of 2012 were significantly back on the year and forecast to remain lower in the year as a whole at 2,002,000 head before levelling in 2013 at 2,039,000 head.

 

"Cow and adult bull slaughterings are expected to fall by around 7% from 2011 levels to 598,000 head and drop slightly further in 2013 to 575,000 head.

 

"As a result of lower domestic production, exports in the year to date are lower and are forecast to be below 2011 levels for the year as a whole."

 

But she said that exports are expected to rebound next year.

 

"The on-going demand for cow beef is likely to prevail although this could be affected by any weakening of the euro against sterling and the on-going economic crisis in the euro zone," said Butcher.

 

"Supplies available for consumption are forecast to be broadly stable in 2012 and be marginally lower in 2013."

 

Cow and adult bull slaughterings are expected to fall by around 7% from 2011 levels.