August 9, 2007
Argentina 2007/08 grain output to hit record 101.7 million tonnes
Argentina will produce a record 101.7 million tonnes of grains during the 2007/08 season, an increase of 7 percent over last year, according to Agripac Consultores analyst Pablo Adreani.
An estimated 1.6 million hectares converted from cattle to grain production will spur the increased output, Adreani said.
The largest gains will be in corn and sunseed production, although increased area will also be dedicated to soybeans, wheat and sorghum.
High sunseed prices will spur farmers to grow 4.6 million tonnes, a 30 percent increase from last year, according to Adreani.
Corn production is forecast to jump 14 percent to 25 million tonnes, while wheat production is expected to be 7 percent higher at 16 million tonnes. Sorghum production will be up 11 percent at 3.5 million tonnes.
Soybean production is expected to increase by just 2 percent, reaching 48.2 million tonnes, according to Adreani.
However, some see greater area going to soybeans. Panagricola analyst Ricardo Baccarin sees up to 1 million more hectares going to soybeans in 2007/08 compared with a year earlier. Corn area will not increase as much as early forecasts indicated, due to higher cultivation costs relative to other grains, Baccarin said.
The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange sees a 20 to 25 percent increase in area going to corn in 2007/08 compared with a year earlier.
However, the lack of available fertilizer, seeds and fuel may damp the gain, according to the exchange.
Panagricola's Adreani sees just 300,000 more hectares going to soybeans this season.
Wheat planting is over 90 percent complete, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange. Sunseed planting has just begun, while corn seeding will begin in September. Soybean planting kicks off in October.
Estimates for Argentina's 2007-08 crop production in millions of hectares (HA) or million tonnes (MT).
|
Wheat |
Soy |
Corn |
Sunseed | |
|
Agriculture Secretariat |
5.55HA |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
USDA |
14MT |
47MT |
24MT |
4.1MT |
|
BA Cereals Exchange |
5.4HA |
n/a |
3.4-3.6HA |
2.6HA |
|
Agropuerto SA |
14MT |
45MT |
25.5MT |
4.5MT |
|
AgriPac Consultores |
16MT |
48.2MT |
25MT |
4.6MT |
|
Panagricola SA |
5.4HA |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
Argentina's historical production estimates in million tonnes, according to the Agriculture Secretariat:
|
Wheat |
Soy |
Corn |
Sunseed | |
|
2006/07 |
14.6 |
47.6 |
22 |
3.62 |
|
2005/06 |
12.6 |
40.5 |
14.5 |
3.8 |
|
2004/05 |
16 |
38.3 |
20.5 |
3.7 |
|
2003/04 |
14.6 |
31.6 |
15 |
3.1 |
|
2002/03 |
12.3 |
35 |
14.7 |
3.4 |
