August 8, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Review on Thursday: Higher; technical bounce, supportive outside markets

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures bounced Thursday, climbing on a technical recovery from Wednesday's steep declines, with support from outside markets aiding the gains.

 

August soybeans settled 22 1/2 cents higher at US$12.43 and November soybeans ended 17 cents higher at US$12.39.

 

December soymeal settled US$5.90 higher at US$332.70 per short tonne. December soyoil finished 60 points higher at 53.20 cents per pound.

 

The market was heavily oversold, with the absence of aggressive fund selling that plagued futures of late, and firm crude oil and metal futures lending support to stabilize prices, analysts said.

 

The market made solid gains, but overall activity was subdued, as traders remained leery of pushing prices with the trade susceptible to fund selling at any moment, analysts added.

 

Nevertheless, the trade began to look ahead to Tuesday's crop reports, with the question marks of yield, acreage and production, unknowns that prompted a consolidative theme, a CBOT floor broker said.

 

Speculative fund selling took a breather Thursday, stability was seen across commodity markets, lower prices are showing signs of attracting export demand, and Midwest soy crop conditions are variable and underdeveloped, leaving room for prices to bounce, he added.

 

Midwest weather conditions remain favorable for crops, but the market has adequately factored in the weather during the last few weeks, analysts said.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 619,600 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 300,000 and 650,000 metric tonnes.

 

Looking ahead, USDA is scheduled to release its August crop report Tuesday 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). The average of analysts estimates projects a crop size of 3.003 billion bushels with a yield of 41.6 bushels per acre. The averages ranged from 2.957 billion to 3.100 billion bushels for production and 40.7 to 42.5 for yields. The USDA currently pegs the crop at 3.000 billion bushels using a trend-line yield of 41.6 bushels an acre.

 

The August report is the first 2008 crop estimate based on field surveys.

 

In pit trades, speculative fund buying was estimated at 3,000 lots.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

Soy product futures climbed in step with soybeans, buoyed by technical buying and borrowed strength from outside markets. The markets scored minor technical bounces from oversold conditions, analysts said.

 

December oil share ended at 44.43% and the November/December crush ended at 78 1/4 cents.

 

Speculative fund buying was estimated at 1,000 lots in Soymeal and 3,000 lots in soyoil.