August 8, 2006

 

Brazil's soy registrations at 93 percent for 2006-07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for market year 2006/07 are at 93 percent of the estimated 25.2 million tonnes Brazil is expected to export as of Jul 31, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove, said Monday (Aug 7).

 

Roughly 23.5 million tonnes of soybeans have been registered for export as of July 31 compared with 22.3 million tonnes two weeks ago. Abiove has Brazil's soy crop estimate at 56.1 million tonnes, the highest private 2005/06 crop estimate around.

 

By comparison, Brazil promised 88 percent of its estimated 22.3 million tonne of soy exports back in market year 2005/06 and all of the 18.9 million tonnes it estimated for exports in market year 2004/05.

 

Nevertheless, Brazil has more soybeans registered for export at this time than it has over the last five years, Abiove reported, due to the ongoing international demand from Europe and China.

 

Abiove maintained its market year 2006/07 soybean exports to be a record-breaking 25.2 million tonnes, compared with 22.4 tonnes in market year 2005/06 and 19 million in 2004/05.

 

Brazil's 2006/07 soy crush remains unchanged at 28.2 million tonnes yet again in the Jul 15 estimate, Brazil's lowest crush in three years.

 

 

Soy derivatives

 

Soymeal registrations for market year 2006/07 rose to 8.2 million tonnes compared with 7.7 million tonnes in the Jul 15 report. Abiove's estimates soy meal exports to be 12.6 million tonnes in market year 2006/07, the lowest volume in four years. Some 65 percent of Abiove's soymeal export estimate has been registered for the export markets as of Jul 31, compared with 70 percent last year and 73 percent two years ago, or market year 2004/05.

 

Brazil has been losing market share in the soy meal markets because of a tax law that favours the export of raw material, competition from Argentina, and a growing soy crush in China, according to industry consensus.

 

Soyoil export registrations to Jul 31 rose only slightly, to 1.49 million tonnes. Registrations are the lowest they have been for this time of year since 2002/03, when the same volume of soyoil was registered for shipments.

 

Abiove maintained its total 2006/07 soyoil export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes, the lowest soyoil export volume since 2002/03 when 2 million tonnes were shipped abroad.

 

Soyoil export registrations were put at 68 percent of Abiove's estimate, compared with 70 percent in market year 2005/06 and 88 percent in market year 2004/05.

 

Brazil is the world's second leading soybean producer after the US.