August 8, 2005
ASA Weekly: Soy rust threat nearly over for 2005; Johanns, farmers discuss subsidies
Soy rust threat nearly over for 2005
The threat of widespread infestation by the Asian soybean rust fungus is nearly over for this year's crop, according to US Deputy Agriculture Secretary Chuck Conner.
"I think we're getting close to the point for this year's crop, that it's not going to appear to have a major move northward," Conner said. However, Conner cautioned that the rust could flare up in certain weather situations.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that if fields remain free of the fungus through August 15, most of Illinois' soybeans will be mature enough for the rust not to cause much damage. At the start of last week, 55 percent of the US soybean crop was setting pods.
Johanns, farmers discuss subsidies
US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns told Minnesotan farmers last week that the amount of federal subsidies in the next farm bill will depend on the country's success in breaking down global trade barriers.
Success in negotiating a level field throughout the WTO will help determine the overall size of the next farm bill, scheduled for renewal in 2007, Johanns said. But he said past success in equalizing markets and a better overall farm economy in recent years make it likely that the next farm bill will be smaller than its 2002 predecessor.
"Every area of the federal government is dealing with budget issues and we are no exception," Johanns said.
Johanns made his comments at a USDA farm bill forum held at Farmfest, a yearly agriculture expo near Redwood Falls in southwestern Minnesota. Johanns is holding a series of such forums in farming states around the country, to gather farmers' input on the next farm bill.
USDA corn, soybean meal donations to finance Iraqi poultry industry
USDA plans to donate 21,250 tonnes of corn and 8,750 tonnes of soymeal to the US Grains Council (USGC), a private organization, for use in Iraq. The USGC will then sell the corn and soymeal and use the proceeds to help revitalize the Iraqi poultry industry.
The council's program will provide a revolving loan fund for poultry producers, training in credit fund management, and a trade capacity building for the Iraqi Poultry Producers Association, according to a USDA statement.
Strong Brazilian real hurts Brazil's export potential
The strong Brazilian real has rendered Brazilian soybeans less attractive to potential importers. The currency has been buoyed by a swelling trade surplus and waning concerns over a local political scandal.
Soybean farmers in the top-producing centre-west state normally sell substantial lots of next-crop soybeans from February onwards. But this year, these operations have been extremely rare because farmers say profit margins are unattractive and trading firms are limiting credit.
Also, rising default levels and lower profit margins this year have led many trading firms and fertilizer and herbicide companies to reduce credit offered to farmers next year.
Many farmers in the centre-west region invested much of their gains from the last three crops. The low prices this year have caused some farmers cash-flow problems, prompting late payments to fertilizer firms. According to the Brazilian Fertilizer Suppliers Association, sales in the first half of 2005 were 28 percent lower than the year before.
Currently, Brazilian farmers only have a window of just over a month before US production begins to arrive on the international market and Brazil and Argentina are displaced as the world's preferred suppliers.
Mato Grosso governor estimates 2005-06 Crop 20 percent lower from previous year
Brazil's 2005-06 soybean crop will be 20 percent lower than the year before, said Blairo Maggi, the governor of Brazil's main soy state Mato Grosso and Brazil's biggest soy producer, according to the local business daily Gazeta Mercantil.
The farmers' main problem is the strength of the Brazilian real, which means local prices do not cover rising costs for fertilizers and herbicides, he said, adding that planted area in Mato Grosso will fall by 20 percent to 27 percent.
Brazil to resume GM approval process in September; consumer groups concerned
Brazil's National Technical Commission on Biosafety (CTNBio) is likely to resume work in September, with the goal of approving a backlog of GMO seed-selling license applications by mid-2006.
Rules for the approval process are due to be issued by end-July and should be implemented by September, CTNBio Executive Secretary Jairon Nascimento said.
"Once the CTNBio resumes functioning, it will waste no time in reviewing and approving a backlog of requests for GM seed-selling licenses," Nascimento said.
The approval process has been suspended since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed the country's first comprehensive GMO law on Mar 24. The law (No. 11,097), passed by the Congress on Mar 2, created a National Biosafety Council, consisting of 11 cabinet ministers, to set a transgenic policy. It also gave the pre-existing CTNBio, a unit of the Ministry of Science and Technology, authority to review and approve applications for GMO licenses.
Sezifredo Paz, the executive coordinator of consumer advocacy group Institute for Consumer Defense (Instituto de Defesa do Consumidor), worries that the new GM law will open the gates to GM crops contaminating conventional species.
"Since soy is self-pollinating and only cross-pollinates via wind over extremely short distances, we're not too worried about GM soy contaminating conventional soy," Paz said. "But corn and cotton are insect-cross-pollinating crops, which means that the possibility of such contamination is great."
Meanwhile, Brazilian co-ops in the southern state of Parana want to charge a 20 percent premium for their non-genetically modified soybeans next season now that GMO technology has spread across the country, according to the local business daily Valor Economico.
The co-ops said the premium would be charged to in part cover the extra cost of segregating the beans.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
7,886 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
78,653 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
62,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
136 |
82 |
540 |
590 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
45,994 |
45,994 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
27,500 |
29,172 |
29,634 |
32,309 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,209 |
30,890 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
9,400 |
19,571 |
19,542 |
22,936 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
4,590 |
4,031 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
80,793 |
80,915 |
33,124 |
37,295 |
38,910 |
51,893 |
52,498 |
58,820 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
7,886 |
5,706 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
4,916 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
4,438 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,536 |
36,501 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
21,725 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
25,459 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,118 |
30,527 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
9,900 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,382 |
5,974 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
20,914 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
15,434 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,500 |
36,501 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
21,864 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
25,334 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
227 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
469 |
425 |
550 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
769 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,716 |
8,648 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
4,950 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
5,816 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
585 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
4,820 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
2,896 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,435 |
8,591 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
4,975 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
5,816 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
769 |
826 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
90 |
90 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 28 July 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.3 |
363.1 |
|
Peru |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
26.5 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
1.9 |
137.3 |
|
Surinam |
Soymeal |
1.3 |
7.9 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
9.7 |
197.1 |
|
Taiwan |
Soymeal |
13.7 |
24.6 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
8.4 |
452.9 |
|
Venezuela |
Soymeal |
28 |
115.2 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
4.5 |
948.6 |
|
Bahamas |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
53.8 |
2810.7 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.5 |
24.9 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
19.7 |
3198.4 |
|
Haiti |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.4 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
27.4 |
1472.7 |
|
Japan |
Soyoil |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
10 |
853.3 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
0.5 |
152.1 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
2.3 |
253.1 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
11.3 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.4 |
9.4 |
|
||||
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
6 |
95 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
24.8 |
324.4 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
6.3 |
928.9 |
|
Soybeans |
999.2 |
29216.8 |
116.9 |
|
Opac Is. |
Soymeal |
0.1 |
5.3 |
|
Soymeal |
527.7 |
5241.4 |
72.7 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
0.4 |
108.5 |
|
Soyoil |
32.7 |
382.7 |
1.2 |
