August 7, 2007

 

East Australian wheat growers face more El Ninos
 

 

Wheat growers in eastern Australia face more frequent dry growing seasons, but biotechnology can help them adapt, Grant Daggard, acting dean of science at the University of Southern Queensland, said Tuesday (Aug 7).

 

Climate trends suggest Queensland and neighbouring growing areas in northern and central New South Wales face rising temperatures and lower rainfall, features that are broadly characteristic of El Nino weather events, he said.

 

"Many of the world's climate models predict more El Nino-like conditions to prevail, which in eastern Australia also translates to reduced soil moisture levels," Daggard told an Agriculture Australia 2007 conference.

 

An El Nino event and associated drought in eastern Australia in 2006 - the first since 2002 - slashed winter wheat production to less than 10 million tonnes from 25 million tonnes previously.

 

Production from other winter grains including barley also slumped, sharply reducing export availability and farm incomes, which in turn slowed national economic growth.

 

The downturn in winter crop production in Australia helped tighten global supply of cereals, in turn supporting higher prices.

 

Daggard also said evidence from local and international research points to the possibility of a steep downturn in inflows to many of Australia's major dams.

 

By mid-century, water runoff in the Murray Darling Basin, which occupies much of eastern Australia and is commonly referred to as the nation's food bowl, could fall up to 35 percent, he said.

 

If this comes to pass, production from irrigation-dependent agriculture, including horticulture and cotton, could be affected.

 

Daggard argues that climatic modelling allows researchers and farmers to be proactive rather than reactive about climate change, and so can start planning for the impact of climate change on crops.

 

Farming practices can change to take account of this, while crops that more easily cope with the expected conditions can be developed through biotechnology, including genetic modification, he said.