Central Asia to play bigger part in global grain market

Central Asia is set to play the role of a grain supplier rather than an importer, as grain production in the region is abundant.

Uzbekistan is expected to harvest a record high 6.15 million tonnes of grain this year, according to agribusiness news agency Agrimarket. This would enable the country to stop grain imports and enter the export market, albeit with a modest amount of supply.

Uzbekistan's yield per hectare is expected to reach 50 centners, up from 48 on average in the previous year. Yield is reported to have reached even 70 centners in the Andijan Province, which is on par with Central Europe's yields.

Kyrgyzstan's summer harvests this year are at 900,000 tonnes, 300,000-tonnes short of domestic need. Kyrgyzstan's average yield stands at 30.5 centners per hectare.

Turkmenistan harvested 1.2 million tonnes of wheat this year, which falls short of the production target of 1.6 million tonnes. Still, Turkmenistan president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow applauded the result, saying that the country used to produce no more than 70,000 tonnes of grain per year during the Soviet Union times.

Azerbaijan, which was dependent on grain imports, was expected to harvest a record of three million tonnes of grain, due to a 25-percent increase in farmland. Azerbaijan's grain requirement is 2.2 million tonnes.

Kazakhstan may be left behind as it is projected to harvest no more than 15 million tonnes, down by a quarter from its 2007 level. The country has a nationwide productivity of 12 centners per hectare, though its southern grain belt is likely to yield 24 centners per hectare.

Despite so, Kazakhstan is still expected to be capable of exporting seven million tonnes of grain due to its substantial reserves.

Kazakhstan may also be able to continue expanding production, an opportunity that will ironically be provided by global warming. The frozen taigas of northern Kazakhstan could become vast areas of semi-wetlands suitable for agriculture without much need for external water supplies.