Western Australian winter crop forecast average

Favourable July rainfall over most of Western Australia's winter cropland has established a strong base to achieve an average crop, the state's Department of Agriculture and Food reported Thursday (August 6).

"Total crop production of between 10 million and 12 million tonnes is expected to be delivered if average seasonal conditions continue," it said in its monthly Seasonal Update.

A strong finish with rain in August and September could increase the size of the crop even further, it said.

Wheat production in a range 7.0 million-8.5 million tonnes is estimated, with most districts looking at around average yields, while barley output should be up to 2.0 million tonnes and canola production about 700,000 tonnes, it said.

Nearly all of this grain is available for export, making Western Australia a major supplier to world traded markets.

While climate models continue to indicate an El Nino in 2009, a positive value for the Indian Ocean Dipole is also indicated, which is usually associated with drier conditions across southern and southeastern Australia, it said.

Analogue years selected by the Department's seasonal outlook system indicate an increased risk of El Nino, but the median rainfall map of these years suggests that "average rainfall is the most likely outcome across much of Australia for the rest of the growing season," the Department of Agriculture and Food said.