August 5, 2009

Agricultural consultancy Celeres has pegged Brazil's upcoming 2009-10 soy crop at 64.7 million tonnes.

Celeres said that Brazil's soy crop should rise 11.3-percent above the harvested 2008-09 soy crop.

Leonardo Menezes, an analyst at Celeres, said Tuesday (Aug 4) that the price ratio between soy and corn is a key factor leading farmers to plant more soy.

Corn has dropped to around 8.50 reals (US$4.3) per 60-kilogramme bag in areas such as Sorriso in Mato Grosso, the No. 1 soy producing state. This means crops such as corn are less attractive than soy, Menezes told Dow Jones Newswires.

Celeres said Mato Grosso should produce 18.8 million tonnes of soy in 2009-10, compared to 17.5 million tonnes a year ago. Parana, Brazil's No. 2 soy producing state, should produce 12.6 million tonnes compared to 10 million in 2008-09 when it faced a prolonged drought.

Celeres, in its first estimate for the area planted, said farmers should raise the area devoted to soy by 6.4 percent to 22.8 million hectares in 2009-10 compared to the previous crop season.

Celeres added that average Brazilian soy yields should rise to 2,829 kilogrammes per hectare versus 2,709 kilogrammes per hectare a year ago.

Brazil is in its inter-harvest period and planting should start in September or October.

Brazil is the world's No. 2 producer of soy.