August 4, 2008

 

Rains in key areas lends optimism to world grain production 

The International Grains Council has revised upward to its forecast for 2008-09 global grain as rains in key producing areas lifted crop prospects.

 

The previous forecast was increased by 7 million tonnes from last month’s forecast at 1.718 billion tonnes.

 

The is up 33 million tonnes from the previous year. 

 

Wheat and corn production is expected to improve due to favorable weather in several key producing regions.

 

Global 2008-09 wheat output was forecast at 662 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from IGC’s June projection and up 54 million from last season’s crop.

 

Record areas in Australia, combined with timely rains, have benefited crops, the IGC said.

 

However, there remains dry areas in North America and areas in the Middle East like Iran and Syria.

 

Global 2008-09 corn production is forecast at 759 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the June forecast, but a drop of 26 million tonnes from the 2007-08 crop.

 

IGC kept its US estimate at 295 million tons but said weather conditions are more favorable in the Midwest.

 

Improved prospects in the EU and China being able to at least sustain last year's corn production also lent weight to a brighter outlook.

 

However, the higher crop figures were partially offset by rising food and industrial demand.

IGC raised its 2008-09 global grain carryover forecast to 281 million tonnes, up 7 million tonnes from the June projection, and unchanged from last season’s carryover.

 

World wheat ending stocks for 2008-09 were raised by 1 million tonnes from the June forecast to 144 million tonnes, which is also up 23 million tonnes from 2007-08.

 

The higher crop forecast would be mostly offset by a rise in wheat consumption, the IGC said.