August 3, 2011

Argentine soy output expected to rise, Brazil's to decrease

Soy production for Argentina in early 2012 is likely to increase on-year but Brazil's will fall below the record 2011 crop, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Aug 2).

Argentina, the world's no.3 soy producer, will harvest 53 million tonnes of soy in early 2012, up from 49.2 million tonnes harvested in early 2011, Oil World estimates.

Brazil's 2012 crop will fall to 73.5 million tonnes, below the record 75.04 in 2011, Oil World forecast.

This is lower than the 75.2 forecast by Brazilian analysts Celeres on Monday for Brazil, the world's no.2 soy producer after the US.

Argentine farmers are likely to plant 19.3 million hectares of soy for the 2012 crop, up from 18.8 million hectares harvested in early 2011, Oil World estimates.

Brazil's 2012 plantings will rise to 24.7 million hectares from 24.1 million hectares in 2011, but the record 2011 Brazilian crop yields are unlikely to be repeated, resulting in a smaller harvest, it said.

Good South American crops will be needed to ensure sufficient world soy supplies in the 2011/12 season in the face of expected poor northern hemisphere soy crops including uncertainty about the US harvest, it said.

"In the 2011/12 season as well as in future years, consumers worldwide will become increasingly dependent on a further expansion of South American soy plantings and production," Oil World said. "However, this year there is increasing competition (for land) from grains which may curb Argentine and Brazilian soy plantings for the 2012 crop below earlier estimates."