August 1, 2012

Oil World has raised its forecast of the European Union's 2012 rapeseed crop to at least 19.0 million tonnes from 18.2 million, lagging slightly behind the 2011 harvest of 19.2 million tonnes.

"The yield expectations have been raised primarily in Germany, where the crop is seen reaching approximately 4.9-5.0 million tonnes," the Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst said. Germany harvested 3.8 million tonnes in 2011 due to poor weather.

Wet spring weather helped crops in the leading EU rapeseed-producing countries, Oil World said on Tuesday (July 31). Rapeseed is Europe's main oilseed for edible oil and biodiesel production.

German rapeseed benefited from ample rain in April and May, and recent higher temperatures have also been beneficial, it said. Damage to rapeseed from deep German frosts this winter was not as serious as feared earlier.

Germany vies for the ranking as the EU's largest producer with France, where rapeseed harvesting is well advanced and good crop results have been achieved, Oil World said.

"The (French) national average yield may reach at least 3.4 to 3.5 million tonnes, implying a production of 5.4-5.5 million tonnes against 5.37 million tonnes achieved last year," it said.

In third-largest producer Britain, it is unclear whether heavy rain this month just before harvest will limit production, possibly to 2.6 million tonnes from 2.7 million harvested last year, it said.

There are also hopes frost damage to rapeseed crop has been less than feared in Poland, the fourth-largest producer, the analyst firm said. The outlook in Poland is unclear, but the crop could reach 1.6 million tonnes, still down from 1.8 million tonnes last year.

The rest of the region's sluggish 2012 crop performance is largely concentrated in other East European EU countries.