July 31, 2006

 

EU beef output to fall by 2013 while pork and poultry to grow

 

 

Beef production in the EU is expected to fall 5 percent by 2013 to below 7.5 million tonnes, the European Commission said.

 

Steady demand would result in firm prices and higher imports. Total beef imports would exceed 0.7 million tonnes by the end of the projection period, its report on agricultural markets 2006-2013 said. 

 

Most imports would consist of South American high quality beef cuts.

 

EU beef exports have been falling steadily since the early 1990s when they were around one million tonnes. Exports fell by 33.5 percent in 2005 due to the strong Euro, high internal prices, cuts in export refunds and lower net production.

 

By 2013, the figure is expected to shrink to below 50,000 tonnes.

 

On the other hand, pork production is forecast to grow steadily, exceeding 22 million tonnes by 2013 from 21.3 million in 2006, due to increased demand.

 

Production would be concentrated in France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Denmark, the report said.

 

Domestic demand is seen staying strong with annual per capita consumption rising to 44.1 kg from 42.8 over the period. Much of the increase was in new member states.

 

The report said increased export refunds meant to bolster the market had not been fully effective as products from some EU members had been banned.

 

The report said the current slump in poultry demand due to bird flu would not affect the medium-term outlook, which was positive as the meat was priced competitively against other meats and strong consumer preference favoured poultry.

 

Annual per capita consumption was seen rising from 23.2 kg in 2005 to 24.1 by 2013 with strong growth in the new members.