US livestock industry bracing for the hard times

The entire livestock industry is under extreme financial stress amid crop producers' profits and higher input costs, according to the Iowa Pork Industry Centre.

 

Livestock producers have been hit hard with a combination of declining market prices, higher feed costs and operating expenses, declining export markets and unforeseen events. The negative profit margins and financial stress are especially prevalent in the swine and dairy industries – two very important segments of Minnesota's economy. The continued negative profit margins and potential future reductions in the livestock industry should be a concern to crop producers, local communities and the state of Minnesota.

 

The growth of the biofuels industry in recent years has driven much of the discussion on future usage of US corn and soy production. The total amount of the US corn supply used for ethanol production has increased by nearly one-third in the past two years, from just over 3 billion bushels/year in 2007-2008, to an estimated 4.1 billion bushels for 2009-2010. However, feed usage for livestock production is estimated to utilize approximately 5.2 billion bushels of corn in 2009-2010, or about 41 per cent of the total US corn usage. As recently as 2007-2008, livestock feed usage accounted for nearly 50 per cent of the total US corn usage. In addition, the other byproduct from increased Midwest ethanol production is increased volumes of dried distillers grains (DDGs), the vast majority of which are used for cattle and hog feed.

 

The interaction with the livestock industry is very similar for soy. Nearly 60 percent of the soy produced in the US is processed into soymeal and soyoil at plants such as ADM in Mankato and CHS in Fairmont and Mankato. Over 90 percent of the soymeal produced is utilized as livestock feed.

 

 

In May, it was estimated that swine producers were receiving an average of US$110 to US$115 gross value for every market hog produced, while the average cost of production was approximately US$140 per hog, resulting in a loss of US$25 to US$30/hog.

 

Iowa State University (ISU) calculates the actual estimated breakeven price for sow operations and hog finishing operations on a monthly basis, based on changes in hog market prices, feed costs and operating expenses. Sow operations have shown losses in the past 15 straight months, with losses of US$15 to US$31/head for each 50-lb. feeder pig produced in the six-month period from September 2008 through February 2009. The hog finishing segment of the industry has not fared much better, showing losses in 17 of the past 19 months. Losses from finishing feeder pigs have averaged approximately US$20/head from January to April 2009, after losses of over US$40/head late in 2008.

 

The feed cost for finishing a market hog rose from just over US$50/head in July 2007, to nearly US$80/head by July 2008. Current feed costs are near US$65/head.

 

To some extent, the swine industry is a victim of its own success in recent years. Pork producers with sow operations have steadily improved genetics, herd health and production practices, which has lead to producing more pigs per sow per year. While this is good for the financial bottom-line of the individual producer, it adds to the available supply of pork and thus puts pressure on hog prices. The pork production per sow has increased by over 11 per cent in the past four years. So, even though the total number of sows in the US has declined by 3.6 percent since 2007, the total supply of pork has continued increase.

 

The May lean futures price for hogs at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) dropped about US$10/cwt in one week following the AH1N1 outbreak, dropping from a closing price of US$69/cwt on April 24 to near US$59/cwt on May 1. The CME May futures price actually fell to a low of US$55.50 on May 4, a loss of nearly 20 percent of market value in just over 10 days. CME hog futures have rebounded somewhat, and were near US$60/cwt in mid-June. Following the AH1N1 virus outbreak, US pork exports dropped by 15-20 per cent.

 

The swine industry is a key segment of Minnesota's economy, and creates thousands of jobs in rural communities throughout the state. Minnesota ranks third in the nation in hog production, with approximately 4,400 swine operations that produce over 11 million hogs annually, lower by 10 percent of the US total. Over 40 percent of Minnesota's hog production originates from south-central Minnesota, with Martin, Blue Earth, Nicollet, Waseca and Brown counties all in the top hog-producing counties in the state. For the future demand for corn and soy, and for the future economic stability of rural communities in the region, it is very important for livestock production to return to profitable levels and greater financial viability. Unfortunately, in order to stabilize the livestock industry, it will require overall production of meat and milk to shrink, which will require some producers to exit the livestock business.