July 29, 2010

 

Romania to harvest smaller wheat yield

Romania, as well as most countries in the Black Sea region, have revised their export plans downwards as severe drought and torrential rains have cut into their crops, officials and analysts said.

 

Romania will likely reap a smaller wheat crop than forecast of around six million tonnes this year because of extensive floods, which have sharply cut yields. It had previously expected to harvest 6.7 million tonnes of wheat compared with 5.2 million in 2009.

 

Top Black Sea producer Russia appears to be most badly hit. Twenty-three Russian regions have declared a state of emergency, saying extreme heat had killed one-fifth of the area sown with grains. The heat is likely to stay at least until the end of the week.

 

Russian officials are very careful giving crop forecasts but on Tuesday (July 27), the economy ministry recognised this year's grain crop may be less than 80 million tonnes, five million tonnes below the latest official forecast. Analysts believe that the crop may fall to less than 70 million tonnes.

 

Agricultural analysts said Wednesday (July 28) that Russia may export 12 million tonnes of grain in the current 2010/11 crop year, less than half of what it exported in the previous season. It will keep selling grain mainly to traditional buyers such as Egypt, Turkey and the Middle East region.

 

Ukraine's government has said the 2010 grain crop may fall to 42-43 million tonnes from 46 million in 2009. Analysts expect the wheat crop to be 18.1-18.6 million tonnes, down from 20.9 million.

 

The government has also said a fall in harvest will cut grain exports in the 2010/11 season to about 16 million tonnes. They predicted the exports of 6.7 million tonnes of wheat in 2010/11. In 2009/10 Ukraine exported 9.2 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Mykola Vernitsky said Ukraine's grain export destinations were likely to remain unchanged this season with main barley buyers being the Middle East and North Africa, and wheat buyers southern Europe and Asia.

 

Kazakhstan expects its 2010 gross grain harvest to recoil by up to 35% to 13.5 million tonnes from last year's record 20.8 million tonnes. The country's three main wheat-growing regions, which contribute about 80% of the country's crop-have avoided serious drought damage, although western regions have experienced severe damage.

 

Its exports of grain and flour are expected to fall to a minimum 6.5 million tonnes in the current marketing year from 8.3 million tonnes in the 12 months to June 30, 2010, the Agriculture Ministry says. But exports to the traditional markets of Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan would not be affected, although the country was unlikely to supply large quantities via Russia to Black Sea ports until 2011. It also could start wheat shipments to China.

 

Bulgaria's wheat crop is estimated to have fallen by about 500,000 tonnes to 3.5 million tonnes, but it is still expecting to have an exportable surplus. Bulgarian traders and farmers hope Bulgaria may still be able to export about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from the 2010 crop.