July 28, 2009

US soy and corn crop progress as of Sunday (July 26) is on par with the development of last year, according to US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released Monday.

 

Meanwhile, spring wheat progress closes the gap on its five-year average, while US winter wheat harvest continued to progress steadily.

The USDA rated 67 percent of the US soy crop as good-to-excellent, unchanged from last week. US soy crop conditions were expected to hold steady in the combined good and excellent categories.

 

The condition ratings were not a surprise, as favourable weather conditions kept the crop in good shape, said Jack Scoville, analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago.

 

The crop was 63 percent blooming, compared to 60 percent last year and the average of 76 percent, according to the USDA.

 

Twenty percent of the crop was reported setting pods, up from 19 percent last year, while below the five-year average of 36 percent. In Iowa, 35 percent of the crop is setting pods, below the average of 46 percent. Meanwhile, in Illinois, 9 percent of the crop is setting pods, below the average of 39 percent.

 

The development pace of the crop is equal to or ahead of last year's pace, showing the crop is holding its own after threatening to fall behind last year's pace recently, Scoville said.

 

The progress may provide some bearishness for prices overnight, particularly without any near-term weather threats for crops, Scoville added.

 

USDA said 70 percent of US corn is in good-to-excellent shape, down 1 percentage point from last week. Traders surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipated an unchanged to 2-percentage-point decline in ratings. Last week, 71 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent.

 

"The crop ratings are impressive for this time of year, and the areas that did show some declines due to dryness received rains recently to alleviate any lasting concerns," said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst with Prudential Bache in Chicago.

 

Fifty-five percent of the US corn crop was silking as of Sunday, on par with last year, but below the average of 76 percent, the USDA said. Seven percent of the crop was reported in the dough stage, on pace with last year, but below the five-year average of 17 percent.

 

"The development pace based on silking and dough stages continues to show we have a late crop and will need an extended growing season, with a later-than-normal frost similar to last year," McCambridge said.

 

USDA said 74 percent of US spring wheat crop is in good-to-excellent shape, up 1 percentage point from last week. That was above trader expectations of an unchanged to 2-percentage-point decline in ratings. Last week, 73 percent of the crop was rated good-to-excellent.

 

"With high crop rating in major areas, yield potential looks quite promising," McCambridge said.

 

The crop was 93 percent headed, down from 98 percent last year and the average of 98 percent.

 

In North Dakota, the biggest spring wheat-growing state, 92 percent of the crop is headed, compared to 98 percent last year and the average of 98 percent, according to the USDA.

 

"The development of the crop is closing the gap with the five-year average, making concerns about late plantings a benign issue," McCambridge said.

 

Winter wheat was 79 percent harvested as of Sunday, compared to 79 percent last year and the average of 84 percent. A week ago, 72 percent of the crop was harvested.

 

In Kansas, the top hard red winter wheat-growing state, 100 percent of the crop was harvested, while South Dakota's HRW crop is 40 percent harvested, down from its 5-year average of 69 percent.

 

Ohio's soft red winter wheat crop was 98 percent harvested, while in Illinois, SRW wheat was 94 percent harvested, compared to the average of 100 percent.

 

Most of the HRW and SRW wheat is out of the field and the areas that are a bit behind shouldn't generate any serious concerns, McCambridge said.