July 27, 2009

 
 US Wheat Outlook on Monday: Down 1-2 cents; poor demand, lack of supportive news
 
 

U.S. wheat futures are expected to open slightly lower Monday amid weak demand and a lack of supportive news.

 

Wheat is called 1 to 2 cents lower. In overnight trading, September wheat was flat at US$5.16 1/4 per bushel and December wheat was down 3/4 cent to US$5.42 3/4.

 

The market is weighted down by poor demand and few troubles for the crop, in the U.S. or elsewhere.

 

"There are just no major problems around the world," a trader said. Even if there were, he said, the sense among traders is that world stocks are ample.

 

Citigroup analyst Terry Reilly said "all eyes on the spring wheat tour this week."

 

The Wheat Quality Council's annual hard red spring wheat tour is expected to uncover a generally good-looking crop that has benefited from cool weather after planting delays in the spring.

 

The Hard Spring Wheat & Durum Tour kicks off Tuesday in Fargo, N.D., and will take participants across the state to assess the condition of HRS wheat and durum crops. It concludes Thursday.

 

The weather remains bearish for wheat and for corn and soybeans, traders said. Weaker corn and soybeans have also weighed on wheat.

 

Reilly said some routine purchases of wheat are expected this week from Japan, Mexico and other central American countries. But analysts see little sign of improving demand.

 

Speculative funds added 4,315 contracts to their CBOT wheat long positions and added 1,607 contracts to their short positions, putting them net short 50,645 contracts, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday.

 

The supplemental commitment of traders report also showed that commercial funds cut 1,537 contracts from their long positions and cut 206 contracts from their short positions, putting them net short 94,158 contracts. Index funds added 1,719 contracts to their long positions and added 1,906 contracts to their short positions, putting them net long 161,303 contracts, the CFTC said.

 

A technical analyst said that Wheat bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum Friday after a bearish weekly low close.

 

The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing December prices below solid technical support at the July low of US$5.38, the technical analyst said. The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close July futures prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of US$5.80 a bushel.    
 

Video >

Follow Us

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn