July 26, 2012

 

 

Due to the continuing drought, the US corn production likely dropped 5.2% in the past week to its lowest level in six years and millions of US corn acres may be abandoned, according to analysts polled by Reuters on Tuesday (July 24).

 

The survey of 11 analysts resulted in an average estimated corn yield of 130.8 bushels per acre, the lowest in 10 years and down 4.7% from a Reuters poll last week. That also is below the USDA's latest estimate of 146 bushels.

 

Corn production was expected at 11.45 billion bushels, down from the previous Reuters poll average of 12.077 billion and down almost 12% from the current USDA estimate.

 

The poll estimated the US soy yield at 38.6 bushels per acre, down 1% from a week ago. Soy production at 2.899 billion bushels also was down 1% from last week's poll and 5% below USDA's forecast.

 

Relentless heat and drought in nearly all major corn-producing states, including top producers Illinois and Iowa, prompted the lowered production forecasts. USDA's weekly crop progress report on Monday (July 23) confirmed expectations that the harsh weather was taking a toll.

 

"Monday's crop ratings showed losses on par with the damage seen during the 1988 drought if these conditions persist," said Bryce Knorr, senior editor for Farm Futures Magazine.

 

At spring planting, corn production had been expected to be a record and near 15 billion bushels this year as US farmers got an early start to planting and sowed the most acreage since the late '30s to capture profits from record corn prices.

 

"Weather so far has taken almost four billion bushels off the corn crop, so a lot of demand must still be rationed," Knorr said.

 

US corn condition ratings fell for the seventh straight week, and the USDA's crop condition report also showed soy conditions falling to near levels last hit in the 1988 drought. The USDA rated the corn 26% good to excellent as of July 22, down five percentage points from a week earlier. It rated soy at 31% good to excellent, the fourth weekly decline and down from 34% last week.

 

Analysts also were beginning to slash their forecasts for the harvested corn area this year due to more and more reports of farmers giving up on gathering any crop at all.

 

"We are at 129.1 bushels per acre and with a one million-acre decrease in harvested acres, we have production at 11.342 billion bushels," said Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale Inc.

 

The USDA's current forecast is for 88.9 million acres to be harvested.

 

"I'm two million acres below USDA on harvested acres of corn," said Jerry Gidel, analyst for Rice Dairy LLC.

 

Some analysts dropped their estimates for the soy harvested area to below USDA's outlook of 75.3 million.

 

"We have corn harvested acres at 87 million, 1.9 million below the government, and we took soy harvested acres down one million," said Don Roose, president and analyst for US Commodities.