July 26, 2010

Kazakh grain production expected to show decrease

Grain production in Kazakhstan is likely to fall sharply from last year's record, but will not be abnormally low in 2010 as key grain-growing regions have not been severely affected by drought.

While drought has ravaged crops in the west of the country, Kazakhstan - among the world's top 10 wheat exporters - can rely on production from its arable northern regions to maintain shipments in the new marketing year, officials said.

"Three provinces account for 80% of Kazakhstan's wheat, and they have not been too badly affected," said Nurlan Tleubayev, president of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

Drought is forcing Black Sea grain exporters to cut their outlook for the 2010 harvest and is likely to reduce exports in the marketing year that began on July 1. Moscow is sweltering through its hottest days in nearly 30 years.

Agriculture Minister Akylbek Kurishbayev forecast on July 20 that Kazakhstan's gross grain harvest would fall to between 13.5 million tonnes and 14.5 million tonnes in 2010, up to 35% below the record 20.8 million tonnes last year.

But officials point out that last year's high crop was an anomaly. Kazakhstan harvested 15.6 million tonnes in 2008.

Tleubayev said yields would be lower, but crop losses would be minimal in Akmola, Kostanai and North Kazakhstan provinces, the Central Asian country's three main grain regions.

Tleubayev estimated these three provinces would produce a combined 11 million tonnes of grain this year, while Kazakhstan's entire harvest would be around 13.5 million tonnes, the lower end of the ministry's latest forecast.