July 25, 2006

 

US crop progress wrap: corn, soy conditions decline

 

 

US corn and soybean crop conditions ratings from the US Department of Agriculture dropped in the weekly crop production report released Monday (Jul 24) afternoon, decreasing more than analysts predicted.

 

 

Corn

 

The USDA reported that 59 percent of the US corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition, a decline of 3 percentage points from the week prior. Analysts had mixed predictions for the crop report, ranging from 1-2 percentage points higher to 1-2 percentage points lower. In the prior week, corn was rated at 62 percent good-to-excellent condition.

 

Iowa, the biggest corn producer in the US, saw its crop drop 6 percentage points in the good-to-excellent rating.

 

"This indicates we could be losing production potential in that (western) region," said Shawn McCambridge, senior grain analyst at Prudential. "The concerns are strong that we need good production potential nationwide to offset expected demand for corn next year."

 

Ohio corn also fell two percentage points to 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition.

 

Other major corn-producing states advanced in ratings. Illinois corn gained two percentage points in good-to-excellent condition, and the Indiana crop gained one percentage point in the same category.

 

 

Soybean

 

Soybean good-to-excellent condition nationwide ratings were 54 percent, down 3 percentage points from the previous week. Analysts were mixed on expectations, placing the change at 1-2 percentage points higher or 1-2 percentage points lower than the week ended July 16. The 18-state average is identical to that of last year at the same time.

 

"In beans, you're getting into the key (growing) timeframe," Roose said.

 

Illinois rose 5 percentage points to 64 percent good-to-excellent rated soybeans, and Indiana soybeans gained 3 percentage points, also to 64 percent with the same rating. Iowa's soybean crop rating dropped 6 percentage points in the good-to-excellent category, and Ohio soybeans slipped 1 percentage point in the same rating.

 

Blooming within the 18 soybean-growing states is up to 76 percent, 16 percentage points higher than the week prior. The average for the week ended July 23 is 3 percentage points lower than that in 2005.

 

"We planted early and we're moving along aggressively," said Roose. "The heat is pushing soybean crops to maturity pretty fast."

 

Average temperatures and precipitation will be necessary to bring soybeans to a productive yield, he said.

 

Short-term weather forecasts for the Midwest predict temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, said John Dee of Global Weather Monitoring. In the 6- to 10-day forecast, a heat ridge is expected to produce above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in much of the US Midwest.

 

Thirty-two percent of US soybean plants are setting pods, the USDA reported. This is double the percentage points from a week prior, and 1 percentage point lower than last year at the same time. The average is 24 percent of US soybeans setting pods in the week ended Jul 23.