July 24, 2012

 

US cattle numbers affected by continual drought

With parts of the US facing a second year of severe drought, overall cattle numbers are suffering from on-going water shortages.

 

The semi-annual cattle and calves inventory turned in the lowest mid-summer numbers since the series began in 1973, according to USDA.

 

All cattle and calves in the US as of July 1, 2012, totalled 97.8 million head, 2% below their levels of a year ago, according to the USDA report released Friday on July 20. That figure also is at the bottom of the range of analysts' estimates for the report.

 

The subset of cows and heifers that have calved was a big drag on the overall number: That category, at 39.7 million, was down 2% from its year-ago level. On a related note, calves under 500 pounds, numbering 26.5 million, were down 3%.

 

Meanwhile, cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the US, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, totalled 10.7 million head on July 1, a 3% jump over year-ago levels. That put the numbers at the upper end of the range of analysts' expectations for the report.

 

The cattle on feed for slaughter inventory included 6.74 million steers and steer calves, up 4% from the previous year.

 

Meanwhile, placements in feedlots during June totalled 1.66 million, 2% below 2011. That report came in at the middle of analysts' projections, which ranged widely last week, mostly because of "differing views of the impact of dry pasture conditions and higher feed costs," as analysts Steven Meyer and Len Steiner noted in the Daily Livestock Report.

 

All cattle on feed as of July 1 totalled 12.3 million, up 1% from the 12.2 million on July 1, 2011, the USDA reported last week.

 

The severity of the drought, however, is forcing industry factors to change more quickly than the government can prepare its reports -- increasing the likelihood that even these latest reports already have been rendered inaccurate, Meyer and Steiner caution.

 

They note that the percentage of total pasture acres rated as being in poor or very poor condition increased 4% in just one week, coming in at 54% as of the middle of last week. As well, 71% of the nation's beef cows are located in states of poor or very poor pasture conditions as of last week.

 

"The magnitude of the Poor/Very Poor percentages is still large and the speed with which it has grown is rather shocking," they wrote.