July 24, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Review on Wednesday: Falls on crude, weather, spread unwinding

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower Wednesday but off session lows amid pressure from favorable crop outlooks, losses in crude oil and the unwinding of inter-market spreads, analysts said.

 

Nearby August soybeans closed down 22 1/2 cents at US$13.94 1/4 per bushel, off its session low of US$13.77. November soybeans sank 25 cents to US$13.84, ending off its session low of US$13.63.

 

August soymeal slipped US$3.10 to US$376.10 per short tonne, and August soyoil dropped 158 points to 58.55 cents per pound.

 

Traders were unwinding long soybean/short corn spreads, as it seemed that corn "ran out of some selling pressure" after tumbling more than US$2 from last month's all-time highs, said Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Market Solutions. Corn temporarily traded higher during the session before sliding into the close.

 

"We did a lot of that unwinding, which is why I think we kept that soybean market under some pressure," Hoops said.

 

Weather doesn't look threatening to the crop in the U.S. Midwest heading into a critical development period in August, an analyst said. Conditions for corn and soybeans look mostly favorable after fears about Midwest flooding supported rallies last month, he said.

 

"It doesn't look like there's anything too scary for August," the analyst said. "You don't want to put a lot of stock in it, but even if you totally ignore (long-range forecasts) and look at the subsoil moisture we have going into August, it's going to be pretty hard to ruin the bean crop."

 

The soy market is in an oversold condition and "could see some bounce in here anytime," Hoops said. However, "there're no fundamentals to assume a bounce would be happening anytime soon," he said.

 

A setback in crude oil also weighed on the soy complex, traders said. Commodity funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts at the CBOT.

 

Looking ahead, the Census Bureau's crush report is scheduled for release at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday. The average of analysts' estimates for the June U.S. soybean crush is 140.1 million bushels, down from the May crush of 150.4 million, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of five analysts.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday will issue its weekly export sales report. Soybean sales are estimated at 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

CBOT soy product futures closed lower amid spillover selling from weaker soybeans and sinking crude oil, traders said. Soymeal retreated to negative territory after gaining earlier in the session.

 

Commodity funds sold an estimated 2,000 soyoil contracts and were seen as even in soymeal.

 

In the Census report, June soymeal stocks are seen at 328,800 short tonnes, down from the 431,528 short tonnes reported for May. Soyoil stocks are seen at 2.911 billion pounds in the report, down from 2.972 billion the previous month.

 

Weekly soymeal export sales are estimated at 75,000 to 180,000 tonnes. Weekly soyoil export sales are estimated at zero to 45,000 tonnes.