July 23, 2012

     

 

Pakistan is expected to grow more than 15.5 million bales in 2012-13 crop season despite heavy monsoon rains from late July-September 2012, analysts said on Saturday (July 21).

 

It was expected that rains would only hit lower Sindh crop belt and some parts in Punjab cotton belt, which would not exceed more than 10% of the total yield, it is estimated.

 

The government has approved use of biotech and new cotton varieties, which have better resistance from virus attacks and better yield.

 

Pakistan's 2012-13 harvested area is forecast to decline 3.0% from a year ago to 3.4 million hectares. During crop season 2011-12, the country hit a record high production, which stood at 15.40 million bales, they added.

 

According to a cotton expert and Pakistan Yarn Merchant Association member Ghulam Rabbani, rains would not dent the crop as growers and farmers have applied maximum measures to protect cotton fields in upper as well as lower land areas in growing parts of Punjab and Sindh.

 

World 2012-13 cotton consumption is forecast to rise 3.0% from the previous year to nearly 110.0 million bales, as a result of lower cotton prices relative to polyester and a slight improvement in global economic activity. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) most recent World Economic Outlook Report has the global economy growing at 3.5% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013. At the same time, current and projected lower cotton prices are likely to improve cotton's share of global fibre demand.

 

In Pakistan, 2012-13 cotton consumption is forecast at 12.5 million bales, up 12% from the previous year. Pakistan's 2012-13 imports are forecast at 2.2 million bales, more than twice the previous year's imports.

 

Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.6 million bales and 2.1 million bales in 2012-13, respectively, an increase of 14% in Bangladesh and 6.0% in Indonesia. South Korea and Turkey are forecast to import 1.2 million bales and three million bales, respectively, a 2.0% decrease from a year ago in South Korea and a 30% increase from the previous year in Turkey.

 

With world 2012-13 harvested area forecast to decline 5.0% from a year ago to 33.9 million hectares, yields are projected at 750 kilogrammes per hectare. In nearly all major producing countries, production is forecast to decline in 2012-13. In China, where 2012-13 planting is currently underway, the crop is forecast at 30.5 million bales, down 9.0% from a year ago.

 

India's 2012-13 production is forecast at 25.0 million bales, a 6.0% contraction from a year earlier as farmers respond to relatively lower world prices. Australia and Brazil are forecast to produce 4.5 million bales and 8.0 bales, respectively, in 2012-13. In the US, 2012-13 production is forecast to rise 9.0% from previous year's weather-damaged crop, to 17.0 million bales.

 

In the African Franc Zone, production is forecast at 3.1 million bales, a 2.0% increase from a year ago. In Mali, Burkina and Benin, the 2012-13 crops are forecast at 800,000 bales, 700,000 bales and 400,000 bales, respectively. India is forecast to consume 21.0 million bales in 2012-13, up 8.0% from a year ago. If realised, this will be its second highest mill use on record.

 

Turkey is forecast to consume 5.6 million bales in 2012-13, up 6.0% from the preceding year, as mills increase investment in new equipment and infrastructure to expand capacity and meet growing demand for its textile products.

 

In the US, mill use is forecast at 3.5 million bales in 2012-13, an increase of 3.0% from a year ago. Brazil's 2012-13 mill use is forecast at nearly 4.3 million bales, up 6.0% from a year ago. The USDA estimated US cotton production projected to exceed demand for the second consecutive season, 2012-13 ending stocks are forecast to rise once again. Stocks are projected at 4.9 million bales on July 31, 2013, 1.5 million bales above the beginning level and the highest in four seasons.

 

Since 40% of the world's cotton consumption occurs in China, country attempted to follow policy in 2010-11, but was forced to abandon it early import in the year due to in adequate levels of reserves. Cotton prices in China are typically higher than world prices, due to limitations on imports through careful allocation of quotas.