July 22, 2011

 

EU rapeseed facing poor harvest on heavy rains

 

 

The EU is facing a sharply lower rapeseed crop in 2011, with falls in Germany and Eastern Europe outweighing better outlooks for crops in France and Britain, traders and analysts said on Thursday (Jul 21).

 

"The poor crop forecasts in Germany and the east look like being confirmed," a rapeseed trader said. "With harvesting now underway, there are increasing signs improvements in other EU regions are not enough to make up the losses."

 

Rapeseed was hit by spring drought, and rain came too late to save the crop in Germany, normally the EU's No.1 producer.

 

German analysts Oil World estimate the EU rapeseed crop will fall by 8.2% on the year to 18.8 million tonnes, five million below the bloc's requirements. A surge in EU vegetable oil imports is expected if the poor crop is confirmed.

 

Germany's 2011 harvest is likely to fall a dramatic 25.1% on the year to 4.25 million tonnes, German farm cooperatives say. Yields are likely to drop 19.8% to 3.9 tonnes a hectare, while the planted area is also down.

 

Harvesting has not yet started in the main north German rapeseed regions.

 

"In south-west and east Germany, the first areas have been cut," said German farming association DBV. "These first harvest results must be treated with caution as only little data is available, but confirm forecasts that yield falls of 15-20% on the year are to be expected."

 

The 12 east European EU members are likely to harvest 5.52 million tonnes, down from 6.32 million tonnes last year, German trading house Toepfer estimates. Poland's crop will fall to 1.69 million tonnes from 2.10 million in 2010, Toepfer said.

 

The outlook has improved in France, usually the EU's No.2 producer, and crop estimates are being revised up to near the 4.8 million tonnes produced last year.

 

The final stages of harvesting were disrupted this week by widespread rain in northern France. But rain is unlikely to reduce the higher-than-expected yields, analysts and traders said.

 

"We are nearing a national average yield of 3.0-3.1 tonnes per hectare," said Fabien Lagarde, technical director of French oilseed institute Cetiom.

 

"If the excellent yields recorded before the rains in the regions for late harvest are confirmed, it will be 3.1 tonnes on a national average," said Lagarde, who did not give a crop estimate.

 

An average yield of 3.1 tonnes per hectare would mean a 2011 French crop of 4.7 million tonnes, down only 2% on the year.

 

In June, France's farm ministry had estimated the 2011 crop would fall 6% to 4.5 million tonnes. French weather is forecast to change from the middle of next week, with drier and warmer conditions expected.

 

Britain is set for a good rapeseed crop, but harvesting has barely started as rains sweep across much of the country.

 

"If we get one or two dry days there may be some advance in the harvest," said Jack Watts, senior analyst with Britain's Home-Grown Cereals Authority.

 

Britain's Met Office has forecast further showers in key growing regions including east England in coming days.

 

Watts said rains do not yet pose a major threat to rapeseed crops.

 

Britain's rapeseed production is expected to be boosted this year by a significant rise in planted area. Toepfer estimates the British crop will rise to 2.29 million tonnes from 2.19 million tonnes last year.