July 22, 2009

Argentina's soy crop for harvesting in early 2010 may reach a record 52.0 million tonnes, up from the drought-reduced 32.2 million in early 2009 as farmers switch from wheat, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (July 21).

 

Argentine farmers are seen to plant 19.0 million hectares of soy for harvesting in April/May 2010, up from 17.50 million hectares harvested in early 2009, it estimated.

 

Severe drought in Argentina may translate a reduction of wheat plantings to 2.60 million hectares for the 2009-10 harvest, down from 4.69 million hectares in 2008-09, and soy were likely to be used as late alternative sowings, it said.

 

Brazil's 2009-10 soy crop was also likely to rise to 61.6 million tonnes, up from 57.14 million tonnes in 2008-09, it said. Paraguay's crop was seen rising to 5.8 million tonnes from 3.9 million tonnes and Uruguay's more moderately to 1.2 million tonnes from 1.0 million tonnes.

 

The tight global oilseed balance will mean the world market will become increasingly dependent on South American supplies in March/August 2010, Oil World said.

 

Oil World said there are very good chances than an extraordinary increase in (South American) soy production can be achieved but "estimates were still preliminary and depended on weather, actual plantings and other factors such as cost of fertilizers".