July 21, 2010

China soy imports seen to escalate

 

 

China's October 2009-September 2010 soy imports are likely to rise to 49.7 million tonnes, up 8.6 million tonnes from last season, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (July 20).

 

This is above the USDA's forecast on July 9 of 48 million tonnes of Chinese soy imports in the season, in turn up from the department's June estimate of 47 million tonnes.

 

China's domestic output still cannot keep pace with the country's surging demand, Oil World said.

 

In the first half of this season, most of China's soy were imported from the US but from March, South America took over with heavy sales from Brazil and Argentina, it said.

 

Oil World is expecting some slowing down in South American soy exports to China during July and August, noting that in the first two weeks of July, China again purchased US soy, even for July and August shipment.

 

Meanwhile, China's 2009-10 soyoil imports are likely to fall to 1.62 million tonnes from 2.49 million tonnes largely due to its trade dispute with Argentina.

 

China, the world's largest soyoil buyer, halted soyoil imports from Argentina in late March after the South American country imposed anti-dumping measures on some Chinese manufactured goods. The row remains unresolved.

 

China's 2009-10 rapeseed oil imports are likely to rise to 60,000 tonnes from 45,000 tonnes to compensate for lower soyoil shipments, but a rise in soyoil buying is also expected in coming months, it said.

 

In addition, it said that Chinese soyoil imports are set to recover sizably to an estimated 700,000 tonnes in July-September 2010 against 140,000 tonnes in April-June; mostly coming from Brazil and the US.