July 21, 2009

The condition of the US corn crop stayed stable from last week, while soy saw a slight improvement, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (July 20) in its weekly crop progress report.

 

The development of the crops is on target with last year but behind the average pace, the report said. Cool, wet weather pushed back planting and development in some areas this year, while Midwest floods and late planting delayed development last year.

 

The condition of spring wheat, meanwhile, improved from last week, as the crop made significant progress on development, according to the report. The winter wheat harvest continued to advance.

 

The USDA said 71 percent of corn was in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. Traders had expected to see the rating stay steady or slip 1-2 percentage points.

 

Condition ratings improved in Iowa and Indiana, major growing states. Iowa's crop was rated 80 percent good to excellent, up from 79 percent last week, and Indiana's crop was rated 65 percent good to excellent, up from 62 percent last week, according to the USDA.

 

The rating for Illinois was unchanged at 60 percent. Nebraska's crop declined to 82 percent good to excellent from 84 percent last week.

 

The adjustments in condition ratings should not impact grain markets as "everybody should have gone in here thinking the crops' going to look about the same as it did last week," said Dale Durchholz, analyst for AgriVisor. Weather was generally mild last week.

 

Development of the corn crop continued to lag behind normal due to late planting in some states and cool weather. The crop was 31 percent silking, compared to 31 percent last year and the average of 54 percent.

 

Iowa's crop was 26 percent silking, compared to 12 percent last year and the average of 45 percent, the USDA said. In Illinois, 26 percent of the crop was silking, behind the average of 80 percent.

 

There are concerns that an early frost could hurt yields because the crop's maturity is lagging, Durchholz said. The crop was "bailed out to a degree last year" by a late growing season, he said.

 

"You really wonder what happens if we have a normal frost date," he said. "What happens if it's a little early? We've got to recognize that we've got some risk in the crop yet. To me, the decline in the marketplace has taken a lot of the risk out."

 

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures have sagged recently on favourable weather.

 

The USDA rated 67 percent of soy as good to excellent as of Sunday, up from 66 percent a week ago. As in corn, traders had expected to see the rating stay steady or slip 1-2 percentage points.

 

In Iowa, the good-to-excellent rating rose to 78 percent from 77 percent last week, according to the USDA. The good-to-excellent rating for Indiana rose to 63 percent from 62 percent last week, while Illinois' rating fell to 57 percent from 60 percent last week.

 

Soy was 44 percent blooming, up from 43 percent last year but down from the average of 62 percent, the USDA said. In Illinois, 24 percent of the crop was blooming, down from the average of 69 percent. Iowa's crop was 60 percent blooming, compared to the average of 71 percent.

 

The lag in maturity should attract some attention because "at this point, you definitely do acknowledge that you have a truncated growing season," Durchholz said.

 

"Moisture supplies are good out there, but beans also tend to like hot weather better than cold weather," he said. "You really start to have some question marks at this point about what the ramifications are on yields."

 

The condition of spring wheat improved to 73 percent good to excellent from 71 percent a week earlier, the USDA said. However, in North Dakota, the top spring wheat-growing state, the rating slipped to 85 percent good to excellent from 86 percent a week ago.

 

The USDA said 84 percent of the US crop was headed, compared to 93 percent last year and the average of 93 percent. A week ago, 57 percent of the crop was headed.

 

In North Dakota, 79 percent of the crop was headed, up from 48 percent last week and down from the average of 93 percent, according to the USDA. Minnesota's crop was farther along at 87 percent headed, compared to 64 percent last week and the average of 95 percent.

 

The report acknowledges that "things are moving along and getting a little better" for spring wheat, Durchholz said. Planting in the northern Plains was delayed by a cool, rainy spring.

 

The winter wheat harvest was 72 percent complete, on target with last year but down from the average of 77 percent, the USDA said. One Kansas City Board of Trade wheat trader had estimated harvest would be at least 75 percent complete.

 

In Colorado, harvest was 50 percent complete, compared to 25 percent last week and the average of 79 percent, the USDA said. Nebraska's harvest was 56 percent complete, compared to 29 percent last week and the average of 76 percent.

 

Cutting was just getting started in South Dakota, with 5 percent of the crop harvested, down from the average of 45 percent. In Ohio, harvest was wrapping up at 97 percent cut, slightly ahead of the average of 95 percent.