July 20, 2010

Less corn stocks boost US corn and soy prices

Smaller corn stocks for the 2010/11 marketing year boosted USDA's average price projections for corn and soy.

USDA boosted its average corn price forecast to a range US$3.45 to US$4.05 per bushel from last month's US$3.30 to US$3.90 range for the 2010/11 marketing year which begins September 1, according to its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. For the 2009/10 marketing year, USDA estimated the average corn price at US$3.50 to US$3.60.

US corn use for 2009/10 was projected 125 million bushels higher as increased feed and residual use more than offsets a reduction for ethanol. Corn use for ethanol was lowered 50 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels, reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Although daily ethanol disappearance set another record in April, daily production slipped below March's record pace. EIA's new weekly ethanol production data series suggests June production, while up from April, will not reach the March pace.

USDA raised its average soy price forecast for 2010/11 to a range of US$8.10 to US$9.60, up US$0.10 cents on each end from last month's forecast. It estimated an average price of US$9.55 for the 2009/10 marketing year. Soy meal prices for 2010/11 are projected at US$240 to US$280 per tonne, up US$10 on both ends. Soy meal prices in 2009/2010 were estimated to average US$300 per tonne.