July 19, 2007

 

US fed cattle supply near last year's record levels

 

 

Although cattle placements during June were down from last year's record pace, marketings also slipped due to one fewer marketing day, and fed cattle supplies on major US feedlots on July 1 would likely remain near a record for the second straight month, livestock analysts said.

 

July 1 Cattle on Feed numbers will be very close to last year's record levels for the date, said Bob Price, president of North America Risk Management Services Inc.

 

The recent trend of Cattle on Feed numbers above last year in the north and below last year in the south will continue to be evident, he added.

 

June placements were down from last year's near-record level, but were still above the five-year average for June, Price said.

 

Feedlot cattle numbers moved above a year ago at the start of June after running under a year ago for the previous four months. This followed a string of 16 months where feedlot numbers held above year-ago levels.

 

Analysts believe USDA's Cattle on Feed report to be released on Friday will confirm their predictions that feedlot numbers are near last year's July 1 record.

 

The average estimate of feedlot supply as of July 1 from analysts surveyed by Reuters was 99.6 percent of a year ago.

 

June placement estimates averaged 89.2 percent of a year ago while marketing estimates averaged 96.2 percent.

 

Cattle placements during June fell from a record pace last year. Rising cattle prices encouraged active placements during June 2006, but prices were closer to normal this year and placements in turn were closer to their June average.

 

Feedlots still tried to keep current in their marketings. The number of cattle in feedlots 120-days or more remains under last year, analysts said.

 

Estimates for cattle in feedlots 120 days or more as of July 1 were put at 95 percent of last year.