July 18, 2013

The US 2013-14 (July-June) export projection is increased by 3.0 million tonnes this month to 29.5 million, with the June-May local marketing year up 100 million bushels to 1,075 million.

Wheat production prospects for the US are up 0.9 million tonnes this month, while wheat supplies are up just 0.2 million tonnes due to lower beginning stocks. Strong early sales and reduced competition from Argentina boost prospects for US wheat exports in 2013-14. As of the beginning of July, the US had already committed more than 10 million tonnes of wheat, about 40% more than last year.

In addition to selling to China, the US is replacing Argentina in a number of the latter's traditional markets, selling unusually large quantities to Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Peru. However, US prices are high compared to other exporters, and transportation costs to the crucial North African and Middle Eastern markets are comparatively high. As competitors' new crop supplies become available, US export sales and shipments are expected to slow down.

Domestic use of wheat for 2012-13 is projected at 1,407 million bushels, down from June, but 224 million bushels higher than 2011-12. Feed and residual use is projected at 388 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from June based on lower than expected ending socks. As projected, feed and residual use would be up 222 million bushels from 2011-12.

Projected total US ending stocks for 2012-13, at 718 million bushels, are down from June with the increase feed and residual use.