July 18, 2008

US corn and soy yields to become more uncertain due to earlier floods

The only thing certain about the 2008 corn crop is uncertainty, as this year's late planted or replanted corn and soy crops puts extra significance on the whims of Mother Nature, according to a study undertaken by researchers at the University of Illinois and private weather forecaster T-storm Weather.

Using various models that take into account planting dates, weather, and technology, researchers forecasted 2008 US corn yields averaging 129.3 to 163.8 bushels per acre against the US corn yield at 148.4 bushels/acre.

For soy, researchers forecasted an average 2008 yield of 37.8 to 45.3 bushels/acre. The USDA projects average soy yield at 41.6 bushels/acre.

Uncertainty is magnified this year due to late planting, extensive flood damage, and extensive replanting in some areas, the study said.

Unfavourable weather in July and August, the wildcard in the various models, could reduce both corn and soy yields below USDA projections. With models anticipating more favourable weather conditions, yields for both crops are seen rising above USDA projections.

Production forecasts for the US corn and soy crop also vary depending on which model was employed. US corn production could fall anywhere between 10.204 billion to 12.930 billion bushels. Similarly, US soybean production could fall anywhere between 2.723 billion and 3.269 billion bushels.